Matt Strobel
@mdstrobe
Golf + analytics nerd. Building a Python model to beat Vegas. Current Mission: The "5 for 10" Challenge (Predicting 50% of Top 10s). Tracking results 👇
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#AMEX Model Showdown: 🥇 Sportsbook: 3/10 🥈 My Model: 2/10 🥈 OWGR: 2/10 💀 Random: 0/10 We all missed the T2 chaos (Day, Gerard, McCarty, Putnam). Scheffler was the obvious pick. Si Woo Kim was the difference. Farmers predictions coming soon. 🔄
What stat matters most at Torrey Pines? 🔹 Strokes Gained: Approach 🔹 Driving Accuracy 🔹 Scrambling 🔹 All of the above My model weighs these differently. Results dropping Thursday. 📊#PGATour #DataScience #Golf #Analytics
My Monte Carlo simulation gave Scheffler a 13% win probability at the #AMEX. Best in the field by 8+ points. He won by 4 shots. Model: 1, Chaos: 1
Brooks Koepka returning to the #PGATour at Torrey Pines after 4 years away from regular events... His track record there? T41 best finish, 3 straight missed cuts. Curious to see where the model puts him.
Tomorrow's final group @theamexgolf is must-watch. I'll be watching from the snow in Indiana. Si Woo Kim, leading at -22. Blades Brown, 18-year-old and Scottie, best player in the world. See you Sunday #PGATour ⛳
Blades Brown is 18 years old, T2 heading into Sunday at The American Express. He's 3 years younger than some of the caddies out there. Wild.
After 54 holes at The American Express: Sportsbook: 3 in Top 10 My Model: 2 in Top 10 Si Woo Kim is the difference. I had him at #12. Vegas had him at #8. He's leading. But I faded Aberg (#3 for Vegas) — he withdrew. Fitzpatrick (#9 for Vegas)? T20. Final round decides it. 📊
Day 1 in the books at The American Express. 📊 4 of my 10 picks are currently inside the Top 10: ✅ Scheffler ✅ Ben Griffin ✅ Cantlay ✅ MacIntyre. Need 5/10 to hit the challenge. Henley, Burns, and Yu are lurking just outside. 🤖 #TheAmericanExpress #GolfAnalytics #pgatour
Round 1 is underway. 10 players. 50% hit rate. Let's see if the robots got this one right. 🤖 #TheAmericanExpress
🚨The @AmericanExpress starts in 30 minutes🚨 The model has made its choices. Here are the guys we need to hit Top 10 hit rate goal: Scheffler, Griffin, Henley, Hall, Straka, Burns, Cantlay, MacIntyre, Kitayama, Yu. LFG #TheAmericanExpress #pgatour
Sony Open Projection: Ben Griffin Win Probability (4.6%) because golf is hard. But Top 10 Probability (27.0%) is massive! Going to do a full reveal tomorrow for the top 10 probabilities for the Sony Open. Will need 5 guys to hit Top 10 to win the challenge!
The Sony Open is usually about "Course Horses" meaning guys who play well here every year. It sees that Griffin is gaining strokes T2G (tee-to-green) at a high rate (+1.8 per round). I know it's a new season, but you gotta start somewhere!
My model has fallen in love with a player for the Sony Open. And it's not who you think. Meet the algorithm's "Darling of the Week": Ben Griffin🕵️♂️ Here's why the data ranks him #1 in the entire field...
I'll be sharing the results (and failures) publicly. If the model fails, I tweak the code. If it wins, we celebrate! Who thinks we can beat it? My goal is that I can correctly predict 5 of the Top 10 finishes in a PGA Tournament using my data model. #GolfAnalytics @PGA2026
I've spent the offseason coding a simulation engine. It doesn't care about "names" or "vibes" It cares about one thing - "recent form". It runs 10,000 simulations every Monday morning. First up: @SonyOpen #PGATour #DataScience
New Year. New Project. 🤖📷I’m launching a season-long experiment: The "5 for 10" Challenge. The goal is to build a Python model that can correctly predict 5 of the Top 10 finishers for every PGA Tour event starting with the Sony Open. #PGATour #DataScience
Win an Elmer T. Lee Barrel Selection Experience valued at $18,000 sazeracbarrelselect.com/charity #elmertlee #sazeracbarrelselect
50k rounds with #RainyDayGolf means that more than 60% of contributions this month are going to @FirstTee. Come check it out and play a few rounds. rainy-day-golf.vercel.app/play #golf #Charity #gaming
Shot-by-shot mode just dropped in Rainy Day Golf! Take your time, plan each swing, and feel like a pro. Perfect for strategizing on our Quail Hollow course. Try it out and let me know how you like it! ⛳🎮 rainy-day-golf.vercel.app #golfgame #virtualgolf #RainyDayGolf @PGA
Next for Rainy Day Golf? A shot-by-shot mode! As a dev, I’m excited to deepen the experience. Play now & shape its future: rainy-day-golf.vercel.app #IndieGaming #GolfGame #RainyDayGolf
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