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Yes. The whole point of Japan was they didn’t let ‘zombie’ firms fail so you had labour and capital stuck in econ version of a dead end. China real estate peaked 2018 and has contracted since with capital and labour reallocated to advance mfg and renewables
we should regulate it so that software engineers can take their tooling from job to job, like a stone mason or carpenter would. who is building this
Starting a new job without 4 years of library infra I built for myself at oldjob feels like starting a new minecraft world. Like, jesus christ, I need to use a wooden pickaxe right now?
at some point we need to acknowledge he has had a psychotic break
very good summary
As an outsider, I'm often surprised by how unaware researchers at frontier labs are of the fact that something could be both a transformative technology and a bubble. So many things could happen (this is not an exhaustive list): - you build it and they don't come (in time for…
First we ignored the annual part. Then we ignored the recurring part. Now we ignore the revenue part. The dismantling of ARR has reached its final form.
i love dwarkesh but he has clearly starting thinking about all these topics *starting from* our experience with llms
china really did go all in on manufacturing at just the right time
A single city in central China makes most of the world’s cigarette lighters. They’ve been steadily turning this low-end industry into a highly automated one. One factory went from making 1 million lighters per day with 200 workers to 5 million with 30 workers a decade later.…
except for some privately held companies, like the trading firms vitol or trafigura
missives from the top
this might be a controversial take, but your launch video is not your product, your product is your product
it’s D >>> A > G > F/H/E > C/B D with bits of greek, near eastern, persian, indian, thai, vietnamese, chinese and japanese cuisine with some anglo thrown in via australia and nz is a league of its own
technology scales exponentially. demand scales exponentially. cost falls exponentially. productivity improving linearly.
this makes sense of the passion with which absolute minutiae are dissected
it’s actually mad how the algorithm tries to pull you into fully unhinged subcommunities if you like one (1) vaguely related post
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