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#MYMODISTORY Every interaction with Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been an experience filled with learning and inspiration. What strikes me most is the way he blends vision with execution, curiosity with humility. Over the years, I have had several opportunities to engage with…
As geo politics interferes with economics, India quickens domestic reform. Reduction in GST rates, and now capital market changes. Time to transform, for every Indian to get out of comfort zone, to embrace atma nirbhar and create negotiating leverage. Only the paranoid survive.
Japanese bullet train Shinkansen was delayed by 35 seconds! The conductor apologised to all passengers and refunded their tickets! Japan is truly an amazing nation of discipline and commitment for all of us to learn from.
Kotak is the first financier for Tesla in India! Reminds me of 1989, the year I was born, when Kotak was amongst the first to offer car finance to Indians - later partnering with Ford. History may not repeat but it rhymes! autocarpro.in/news/kotak-mah…
India’s share in number of contracts in index and stock options is a staggering 80% of the world!
Recent stock market actions signify 3 aspects: money power, low liquidity in single stocks vs.index derivatives, exchange, broker business models linked to volume, less to fundamentals. Primary role of market is to promote capital formation, fair price discovery.
India’s saver turns investor. Post Covid, mutual fund AUM share, mainly equity,has doubled to 31% of bank deposits. Reflects structural change in financial intermediation. It grows domestic risk capital and creates an equity culture. But let’s be alert about excessive exuberance.
Monetary policy: bold and strategic. 50 bps rate cut, 100 bps CRR cut, move from accommodative stance to neutral. Nuanced combination of policy measures.
India 10 year bond yield at 6.20% pa. US 4.60%. Gap of 1.60% is probably lowest I recollect. Will we 1 day see Indian yields lower than the US? Depends mainly on relative inflation, risk premium, trust, and liquidity, for global and domestic investors in these 2 countries!
The performance of gold over time highlights that the Indian housewife is the smartest fund manager in the world. Governments, central banks, economists, who support pump priming, high deficit funding, may need to take a leaf from India, a net importer of store of value forever!
Trump tariffs. World in a tizzy. Famous Lenin quote: there are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen. In 1973, OPEC cartel changed rules on energy prices. Despite chaos then, 50 years later, the Middle East gained, many others lost. Where will this end?
There is a video circulating on social media where I am apparently seen promoting an investment scheme and guaranteed returns. This is FAKE. Please do not be entrapped by it.
Leading banks are taking 1 year wholesale deposits at ~8%. Translates to loaded marginal deposit cost of 9%+ after CRR (0 interest), SLR, deposit insurance, priority sector. Excluding opex. Low cost Retail Deposits (CASA non wholesale) show muted growth across the system. Yet,…
Trump, tariffs, turbulence. US imposes fresh import duties on Canada, Mexico and China. It will have a major impact on global supply chains and markets. Time for emerging markets including India, to prepare for and be resilient to, outflow shocks from global investors.
A budget for steady fiscal consolidation. A tax sweetener for the middle class should help consumption.Welcome steps to improve ease of doing business.
China intensifies the global tech race with DeepSeek to challenge US supremacy in the AI world. It has topped Apple App Store rankings. As the race to the top progresses, it is time other aspiring countries step up the game.
As the Trump era dawns, it is time for us to unleash broad based enterprise, avoid over regulation and micromanagement in every sector, and build a competitive India.
My year end musings: India at 77. 1. Go for growth. Let’s get enterprise and animal spirits firing. 2. ROTI is Return on time invested. Go relentlessly for productivity. 3. Shun protectionism. It may benefit in the short term. Long term it makes us uncompetitive. 4. We need a…
US jobs growth much stronger than estimated. Unemployment down to 4.1%. 10 year US bond yields up to 4.77%. Reduces incentive for investors in equities or risk assets, if “ risk free” asset gives ~ 5% $ return. Emerging markets need to manage external account carefully.
My year end musings: India at 77. 1. Go for growth. Let’s get enterprise and animal spirits firing. 2. ROTI is Return on time invested. Go relentlessly for productivity. 3. Shun protectionism. It may benefit in the short term. Long term it makes us uncompetitive. 4. We need a…
I remember Arun Jaitley on his birthday. While I knew him for long, I worked closely with him as chair of the public interest board of IL&FS at a crucial juncture for India’s financial sector. His could balance media, politics, business, economics and law. Miss you Arun.
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