Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
Geopolitical Strategist| Chief Strategic Foreseer | I coined #Dragonbear |#geopolitics |#GlobalSystem | #realpolitik | #foresight | #trends | #risks | #RWRI
Was dir gefallen könnte
India’s rise isn’t just about GDP growth - it’s about demographics meeting geopolitics. By 2030, India will add more workers to the global labor pool than the entire OECD combined, yet it’s also the only major power sitting in US & BRICS+ frameworks. That dual embed makes New…
“Europe’s task is not to fear abandonment. It is to take responsibility – for itself, Ukraine, and for its role in the wider struggle that defines our era. Europe is not alone. It is simply late. And history does not wait for latecomers” By @vtchakarova open.substack.com/pub/velinatcha…
That is also what I read in the National Security Strategy. On the one hand a beginning of willingness to see the world in two hemispheres (back to Tordesillas 1494 but not on the same line). On the other hand still the determination to protect and defend the first island chain.…
Pay attention to this important shift in the immediate threat assessment.
The real problem is not that “Europe is alone,” as @NathalieTocci argues, but that 🇪🇺the EU has chosen to stand alone by sidelining one of its most significant European actors: 🇹🇷Türkiye. Türkiye is structurally treated as “European” when it suits the EU’s own agenda, but is…
My response to @NathalieTocci's interesting op-ed for @ForeignPolicy "Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?" Europe is not alone. It is simply late. And history does not wait for latecomers. Let me know what you think! (Link to read the whole op-ed is in the comments).
Pay attention to narratives
In response to Lai Ching-te’s interview at Dealbook Summit to The New York Times, MFA Spokesperson stated: The event of relevant U.S. media outlet provided a platform for the Taiwan authorities’ leader to peddle separatist rhetoric for “Taiwan independence.” This is a serious…
Pay attention to this important shift in the immediate threat assessment.
Hegseth's words on China at the Reagan Forum echoed those at the Shangri-La. But one Asian diplomat said, "It seems to have regressed." In May, Hegseth had said that the threat of China conquering Taiwan by force is "real" and could be "imminent." If deterrence fails, he said,…
These are the discrepancies between European aid for Ukraine and European oil and gas purchases from Russia between January 2022 and December 2024.
Europe is not alone. What is with this “victim” mentality that is so toxic for the Mindset? Everyone else - the US, China, Russia, etc. is going after their national interests in a new Cold War with two emerging blocs. Europe cannot longer sit between the two geopolitical chairs.
True
"Only the tiniest fraction of mankind want freedom. All the rest want someone to tell them they are free." — Irving Layton
I think that Europe can meet the challenge if it wants, but doesn‘t have the Mindset to even try.
Do you think Europe will meet the challenge? Do you think if they do meet the challenge this still includes a U.S. military backstop?
That’s plausible statistics. The 10% drop in global GDP is devastating news for Europe. Given the demographic decline, the lack of own energy production and the socio-economic challenges, the projections for Europe point to systemic and structural decline for the next 10-15 yrs.
I don’t think this is correct. Where does your data come from? According to the IMF, the EU’s GDP has declined from 27% of the world’s total in 1990 to just 18% today. America’s has remained stable, at 26%. imf.org/external/datam…
Fantastic development in Taiwan. 👇
#Taiwan’s🇹🇼 economy is set to grow 7.37% in 2025—our strongest in 15 years. As an innovation engine powered by AI & emerging tech, in Taiwan, we are ready to share our experience with the world & work with like-minded partners for a more resilient, prosperous future.
China has deployed a large number of naval and coast guard vessels across East Asian waters, at one point more than 100, in the largest maritime show of force to date, according to Reuters. via @ianellisjones
It's been exactly a year since I've posted the brutal truth about Europe. Yet, how much has changed strategically in the European capitals and Brussels? x.com/vtchakarova/st…
It’s not the West that’s in decline. It’s Europe & Europe only. The reason is what I call the impossible trilemma of speeding up decarbonization, reviving industrial competitiveness amid high energy & labor costs & restoring security and stability amid the worst war after WWII.
The US has just sent its sharpest message to Europe since the end of the Cold War amid the new Cold War with the DragonBear. Reuters reports that Pentagon officials told European diplomats this week that Europe must assume the majority of NATO’s conventional defense capabilities…
Don't shoot the messenger.
European stupidity comes to bite us. We had a year since Trump got elected (and in fact 9 years since he first got elected) to come up with our own timetable for burden-shifting on critical enablers for European defense. We did nothing. And now we are being served an ultimatum.
This 👇
Appreciation to the #US for prioritizing deterrence against a conflict over #Taiwan & denying any attempt to seize it in its National Security Strategy. I’ll also make it clear that we’re deeply committed to self-defense & #PeaceThroughStrength.
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