#fooledbyrandomness search results
痛烈な皮肉と稀な事象『まぐれ』書評前編（2013年6月3日：747PV） #TheBlackSwan #NassimNicholasTaleb #FooledbyRandomness #ランダム katamuki.acenumber.com/2013/06/1st-bo…
General lesson in life. To detect statitical bullshit, look at the graph, not the metrics. #FooledbyRandomness (h/t @ElectionLegal)
A moment of clarity upon a re-re-reading of #fooledbyrandomness combined with some market exp.: We do not really know what the underlying “something” is that stock prices are trying to value (DCF is what it SHOULD be). Hence, dividends, cash flow/piles become vvvv important
It is IMPOSSIBLE to not find a statistically significant link between any 2 random variables under multi-testing. I generated 9 pairs of totally random variables, picked the highest R^2, and it beats what you see in papers. #FooledbyRandomness
痛烈な皮肉と稀な事象『まぐれ』書評前編（2013年6月3日：719PV） #TheBlackSwan #NassimNicholasTaleb #FooledbyRandomness #ランダム katamuki.acenumber.com/2013/06/1st-bo…
Look - not only that LLMs have an internal world model, but Mars has a surface bear model! #FooledByRandomness #LLMs
I still sometimes pass by the Business/Money section while at the bookstore and the first thing that comes to mind is that someone got lucky and decided to write a book #vanity #fooledbyrandomness
痛烈な皮肉と稀な事象『まぐれ』書評前編（2013年6月3日：694PV） #TheBlackSwan #NassimNicholasTaleb #FooledbyRandomness #ランダム katamuki.acenumber.com/2013/06/1st-bo…
#FooledByRandomness is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. #NassimTaleb NGN 7000
NFL ATS picks experiment: Result last week was W-L 6-10. Result for 10 weeks is W-L 77-64 (7 pushes). My win rate is 54.6% for 10 weeks. as such if I have a sports book that holds only 5%, I would have to make 100K worth of bets to make $1900. #fooledbyrandomness
A mini tutorial explaining the #FooledbyRandomness point. As a general rule, you can always learn from charlatans. @BjornLomborg
Explaining to this fraud @BjornLomborg how with n = 26 it is IMPOSSIBLE to not get s spurious slope . First table is purely random points (n = 26), where I show that you can ALWAYS fit a line with a decent slope. The second is the distribution of R^2.
Finally dove into @nntaleb's #FooledByRandomness. It took me a while to get here, but I’m so glad I did. The timing couldn’t be better—its insights on how and why things happen are key for a next chapter of my life. Definitely keeping it close for a second read soon!
ye ol' moving average (low pass filter) Bitcoin price crosses over a smoothed Bitcoin price that is incorrectly lagged. This means *something!* 'Killa' analysis #fooledbyrandomness
"The problem with historical reporting is overestimation of agency: narratives require leaders so people are fooled by journos etc. about the exact process. Same overestimation of agency as the one in #fooledbyrandomness" - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
#surviorshipbias #fooledbyrandomness ? Maybe but it’s true history does favour the bold
@nntaleb's infinite monkey/typewriter example: would you bet on that very same one monkey that had previously produced the Iliad to produce the Odyssey next? I think it was in #fooledbyrandomness (which remains my personal fav of the series).
There are a lot of people who get a long way through life appearing to have 'sharp minds'. #fooledbyrandomness
Çok hızlı ve çok doğru kişilik testiymiş yapalım ve cevapları alalım…
"What we often mistake for a pattern is merely a lucky run of noise." - @nntaleb In a chaotic world, the truth is that your success is more probable than you think. Learn the odds, play the game. #FooledByRandomness #Success #ChaosTheory #SignalToNoise
Right. But did luck play no role in all these success stories? #fooledbyrandomness
The fact you called it betting and not predicting tells me you’re victim to be #fooledbyrandomness
When people brag to you (or on their podcast) about their short term gambling ..err trading successes… do you know what they rarely - if ever - mention❓ _________ 👉DON’T IGNORE the #SilentEvidence 👉DON’T be #FooledByRandomness 👉try to learn from #BehavioralScience
Investing 🚫🟰Gambling Which are you doing? Do you know? $MSOS $TLRY etc… Today seems like a good day to revisit this post 👇 open.substack.com/pub/markemerri…
痛烈な皮肉と稀な事象『まぐれ』書評前編（2013年6月3日：747PV） #TheBlackSwan #NassimNicholasTaleb #FooledbyRandomness #ランダム katamuki.acenumber.com/2013/06/1st-bo…
When I asked @grok to channel my favourite @nntaleb AI take on the recent #H1B fee hikeA noisy lottery just got pricier, fooling Indian tech bros who think a visa crowns them Ramanujan. Most are replaceable noise, not fat-tailed signal. I kinda agree #fooledbyrandomness
Unlock the truth behind luck, risk, and success—don’t just play the game, understand it! 📖✨ amzn.to/4miItQM #FooledByRandomness #Ad #NassimTaleb #WisdomInPages #MindsetShift
General lesson in life. To detect statitical bullshit, look at the graph, not the metrics. #FooledbyRandomness (h/t @ElectionLegal)
.@nntaleb "Mistaking the merely associative with the causal." another great lesson from #Antifragile and #FooledByRandomness
@nntaleb Today's #Offshorecomic. This strip was inspired by Taleb's fantastic book #FooledByRandomness. #HedgeFunds
.@nntaleb The 2. and final strip on the topic of "misattributed causality" ... still inspired by #Antifragile & #FooledByRandomness
November reads are in. Thanks, @MichaelOvitz @bradleyhope @TomWrightAsia, @nntaleb #whoismichaelovitz #billiondollarwhale #fooledbyrandomness #vkbooklist vinnykurban.com/books
In #FooledByRandomness I explain an aspect of it: the more frequent the sampling the higher the noise.
3) Now compare the regression of that pseudo paper above to the ones coming from random points #FooledbyRandomness
Struggling. Today's inspiration to exorcise the funk. @nntaleb @SPressfield #fooledbyrandomness #thewarofart @SteveO_Writer @SOWhatPublish
When Latin was dropped by the Catholic church, while other Abrahamic religions retained holy tongues, Catholicism collapsed -perhaps independently. Meanwhile, pple in fastest growing religion pray in classical Arabic a tongue <20% understand & < 4% speak. in #FooledbyRandomness
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