#probabilityforecasting risultati di ricerca
Statistics by simulation, or Monte Carlo methods, uses computational power to solve problems that are too hard for traditional math. Instead of solving complex equations, we program a computer to mimic a random process (like rolling dice or modeling stock prices) millions of…
Major update to the #probability cheatsheet! More visual, new material: wzchen.com/probability-ch… CC @wzchen #stat110
Conformal prediction is a powerful machine learning framework for quantifying uncertainty. Instead of just giving a single "best guess," it produces a prediction set (or interval) that is mathematically guaranteed to contain the true value with a pre-defined probability (e.g.,…
I'm cautiously optimistic about the practical value of Probabilistic Numerics.. maybe close to 50/50. Optimistic because numerical methods bring computed-minus-true errors, and a principled way to keep such things low is to manage a distribution over them. I've seen Bayesian…
There's a serious possibility that when you talk about how likely something is, you're implying a wildly imprecise range of 20% to 80% probability. To quote the great philosopher Inigo Montoya, "I think it does not mean what you think it means." hbr.org/2018/07/if-you…
Probability asks, "Given a fixed model, what's the chance of an outcome?" (e.g., P(Heads | Fair Coin) = 0.5). Likelihood asks, "Given a fixed outcome, how plausible is a model?" (e.g., L(Fair Coin | Heads) = 0.5). In machine learning, we use Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE).…
Day 8 – Prediction Markets vs Polls & Experts Polls give opinions Experts give predictions Markets give probabilities backed by money 🧘♂️ How to read market odds •YES token at $0.72 → 72% implied probability •NO token at $0.28 → 28% implied probability •This comes from…
Day 7 – How to Create Your Own Market Why only trade when you can create? Prediction markets aren’t locked to big platforms, you can set up your own . 🔹 Steps to build a market 1.Pick a platform → @Polymarket, @AugurProject, @Omen_eth (Gnosis) 2.Define your event → make it…
The notion of “probability” is both familiar (we use it), and mysterious (we would typically struggle to define it). Here is a 🧵 to remove the mystery and make the meaning of “probability” more intuitive.
#ProbabilidadPrecipitación. El resto de semana prácticamente no habrá ningún punto en que el ☔ no sea necesario en algún momento. Probabilidad baja para empezar la próxima semana. #ClimaEnMapas climaenmapas.blogspot.com/p/panelmapaspr…
⚠️NEW⚠️ this winter on the Experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal: Probabilistic Ice Accumulations 🧊. Data viewable through an interactive map, tables, and graphics here: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/
🤡 ☔ ¡¿Cómo que la probabilidad de lluvia no es el chance de que vaya a llover?! Así se calcula el pronóstico de porcentaje de lluvia 😮 🌧️🌦️ #lluvias #meteorologia #ciencia #pronostico #temperaturas #clima #actualidad #pictoline
A new textbook by Professor Jason Abrevaya (Probability and Statistics for Economics & Business) is forthcoming from @mitpress. Publication on November 25, 2025. Companion website probstats4econ.com. The manuscript for the book has already been used by 2,000+ UT Econ majors!
Cambridge "Probability" lecture notes PDF: statslab.cam.ac.uk/~rrw1/prob/pro… Example sheets & more: statslab.cam.ac.uk/~rrw1/prob/
Let’s clear up the confusion between probability and likelihood in statistics. Probability is forward-looking. It starts with known parameters or a model and predicts the likelihood of an outcome. For example, with a fair coin, the probability of flipping heads is 0.5. It helps…
Cambridge "Probability" lecture notes PDF: statslab.cam.ac.uk/~rrw1/prob/pro… Example sheets & more: statslab.cam.ac.uk/~rrw1/prob/ (audio generated by NotebookLM)
This is an example of how to use Pricediction at this stage, even though we’ll be making major updates in the future based on the feedback we received from you all. You can create your own formula templates and reuse them for similar event types, for example, in this case, we’re…
Classical #forecastingmethods narrowly focus only on a single number. #ProbabilityForecasting provides an accurate range of possible demand. buff.ly/2itv6n4
#Probabilityforecasting has many advantages over the point forecast. Read on to explore more: buff.ly/2AyaUnb
#Probabilityforecasting has many advantages over the point forecast. Read on to explore more: buff.ly/2AyaUnb
Classical #forecastingmethods narrowly focus only on a single number. #ProbabilityForecasting provides an accurate range of possible demand. buff.ly/2itv6n4
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