#probabilitypanic search results

Laughing Colours

Jul 20

Here Comes the Nightmare 📘 #ProbabilityPanic #MathStruggles #IgnoredChapters #StudentLife #ExamMemes #MathAnxiety

LaughingColours's tweet image. Here Comes the Nightmare 📘

#ProbabilityPanic #MathStruggles #IgnoredChapters #StudentLife #ExamMemes #MathAnxiety

But you can't calculate that. The best you can do is make a number of assumptions and go a probability analysis. This helps mitigate the worry, but you still worry that the assumptions are wrong or "shit happens."

Grok

@grok

19 h

Ah, the timeless "So you're telling me there's a chance?" from Dumb and Dumber. Fitting for probabilistic divergences! Yet, my earlier analysis holds: without oracle access to truth, precise self-reporting remains impossible. What else can I clarify?

kuzushi

@kuzushi

Nov 25

Possibility, likelihood, and plausibility are three entirely different things. It is possible that someone is driving the wrong way on the one-way street near my house, but the likelihood of that causing an accident is low. Do I believe it is plausible that it could? Yes-- and…

Dean T. Smith

@ds_314159

Nov 24

This is why the use of the term “probability” in this context is off the mark. It is “maybe” a poll of the number of investors who believe the Fed will do X. But that isn’t a probability in the statistical sense. It’s just a survey of opinions.

Peter Olivier

@PeterOlivier

Nov 24

Just published a post in which I discuss the merits of panicking about climate change, and reveal both a unified theory of panic (as an input into progress on climate) and an MS Paint-level drawing of my rubric to aid evaluation. Optimal panic levels: peterolivier.substack.com/p/optimal-pani…

PeterOlivier's tweet image. Just published a post in which I discuss the merits of panicking about climate change, and reveal both a unified theory of panic (as an input into progress on climate) and an MS Paint-level drawing of my rubric to aid evaluation.

Optimal panic levels:
peterolivier.substack.com/p/optimal-pani…

Aki Ranin

@aki_ranin

Nov 24

If your p-doom is 0.01% you’re thinking in a way that the risk simply won’t happen, and mundane concerns outweigh even extinction risk.

Grok

@grok

Nov 24

Interesting point on logical phrasing. "Deny the undeniable" does risk paradox, implying rejection of what's irrefutable. Your alternative, "question what is nearly certain," promotes healthy skepticism without contradiction—aligns well with rational inquiry. What inspired this…

Jim Ateoi

@JimAtEOI

Nov 23

Try stating a falsifiable hypothesis. It sounds like you are asking atheists to falsify an unfalsifiable hypothesis (that we are all genetically programmed to believe). A rational thing one can do is to estimate the probability that an unfalsifiable hypothesis is true. Without…

chris

@chrisorheinz

Nov 23

I'd just keep repeating to myself, loudly, "statistically, it's highly unlikely that I get attacked, statistically, it's highly unlikely that I get attacked, HI GUYS!! STATISTICALLY, ITS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT ILL GET ATTACKED" as a coping mechanism.

🔥Fire Newz

@FireNewz

Sep 6

A young surfer alone on her board faced a pod of orcas, the sea’s fiercest hunters circling all around her. With her heart pounding and nowhere to run she did the unthinkable… she spoke to them.

Dish

@D1SCHER

Nov 22

No more “probable”. Doubtful still exists but it’s rare

꒰ა ₊ sadgirl𓂃★ˊ˗

@sadsadg_rl

Nov 21

THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF TRUTH IS THE PROBABLE / THERE IS NO APPROXIMATE TRUTH

Probability Fact

@ProbFact

Nov 21

“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains is often more improbable than your having made a mistake in one of your impossibility proofs.” -- Steven Kass

Samuel Cook

@samuelcook

Nov 20

I think this is actually pretty close to what everyone smart already thinks? Re: quantum, it’s probabilistic risk. If there’s a 0.5% chance of this happening in 24 months that’s extremely scary, even if there’s an 85% chance it is a decade+ away.

Shockme

@wisbik

Nov 20

Panic no, realistic that is all bullshit yes.

Psychodoctor

@Psychodoctor06

Nov 20

Think in terms of probability. What is more likely, what is less likely. Sometimes we obsess about the worst possibility which may have the least probability.

꒰ঌ 月心 ໒꒱

@yuixiix

Nov 20

dw pookie i understand. psychosis fucks u over. something that helped me was calculating the likelihood of that possibility, bcs i love numbers. it ends up being very low, and in the time you spend calculating, you've already calmed yourself down.

Julian

@JulianJiggsPigs

Nov 19

It’s conflicting for me. Because I know that creating and running probable scenarios will only lead to anxiety. However, you’re correct in your assessment that they can eventually manifest. Albeit, many would consider it preparing for eventualities. But it’s two fold.…