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#probabilitymodels 搜尋結果

insight_centre's profile picture. The Insight Research Ireland Centre for Data Analytics is a @scienceirel #BigData research centre with over 450 researchers. #AI #DataEthics @scienceirel
Insight Research Ireland Centre
 @insight_centre
2022年12月8日

is the English Premier League competitive? Prof ⁦⁦@NialFriel⁩ in his Insight Winter Lecture explains football #probabilitymodels without equations 🤔 ⚽️#BayesianStatistics #football ⁦@ucddublin⁩ ⁦@DCU⁩ ⁦@UCC⁩ ⁦@uniofgalway⁩ ⁦@scienceirel⁩

insight_centre's tweet image. is the English Premier League competitive? Prof ⁦⁦@NialFriel⁩ in his Insight Winter Lecture explains football #probabilitymodels without equations 🤔 ⚽️#BayesianStatistics #football ⁦@ucddublin⁩ ⁦@DCU⁩ ⁦@UCC⁩ ⁦@uniofgalway⁩ ⁦@scienceirel⁩
insight_centre's tweet image. is the English Premier League competitive? Prof ⁦⁦@NialFriel⁩ in his Insight Winter Lecture explains football #probabilitymodels without equations 🤔 ⚽️#BayesianStatistics #football ⁦@ucddublin⁩ ⁦@DCU⁩ ⁦@UCC⁩ ⁦@uniofgalway⁩ ⁦@scienceirel⁩
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stats_ninja's profile picture. top 1% parallel parker, 12th percentile dishwasher loader | @ATLTUG co-lead | Solution Leader @analyticvizion | stats & running
Anna Foard
@stats_ninja
2021年6月6日

I often have to rely on previous data to figure out which Hulk my kids are talking about since context tells me it could go either way. #boymom #forecasting #probabilitymodels

stats_ninja's tweet image. I often have to rely on previous data to figure out which Hulk my kids are talking about since context tells me it could go either way. #boymom #forecasting #probabilitymodels
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Pow3ja's profile picture. Author- Dead Sea Scrolls-Lost Poems Found - A Novel disguised as a book of poetry.
J. L. Powell
@Pow3ja
40 分鐘

Integrated Probability Model (Powell + Age of Disclosure + Grok/Copilot) open.substack.com/pub/jackpowell…

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Tynach's profile picture. Computer programmer who loves to play games and roleplay.
Tynach
 @Tynach
6 小時

If I understood correctly, your overall point for that one is that the probability method isn't reliable because there are times where you can excuse one option as always being the cause even if there's evidence that it's NOT the cause. This is actually a very good point; my (c)

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PoulardMere's profile picture. Biostatistico e scettico di professione, con metodi ai più sconosciuti risolvo problemi che non sapevate di avere - Real statisticians don't do it in excel
Max Likelihood
 @PoulardMere
23 小時

Già vedo qui da un rapido scrolling qualcosa che non va: il modello lineare indicato nella formula, vìola sicuramente alcuni assunti che condizionano la validità dei risultati, qualunque cosa venga fuori.

PoulardMere's tweet image. Già vedo qui da un rapido scrolling qualcosa che non va: il modello lineare indicato nella formula, vìola sicuramente alcuni assunti che condizionano la validità dei risultati, qualunque cosa venga fuori.
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Riazi_Cafe_en's profile picture. The goal of this account is to encourage mathematical thinking.
Math Cafe
@Riazi_Cafe_en
年11月21日

"Probabilistic Machine Learning" by Kevin P. Murphy Download link can be found at: probml.github.io/pml-book/book1…

Riazi_Cafe_en's tweet image. "Probabilistic Machine Learning" by Kevin P. Murphy Download link can be found at: probml.github.io/pml-book/book1…
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elementgermani3's profile picture. @elementgermani2 politics containment account
hi530
 @elementgermani3
年11月20日

Even five independent results would mean the odds that the model is false are 1 in 3.2 million. Ten independent results make it 1 in 10 trillion. How else do you suggest I calculate the odds if not by the quantity of existing data supporting it?

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elementgermani3's profile picture. @elementgermani2 politics containment account
hi530
 @elementgermani3
年11月20日

The more consistent the accuracy of a model’s predictions, the more likely that model is to be true. The odds of the current model being false given observed reliability are astronomically low. Why should we assume that by default?

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xuanalogue's profile picture. Assistant Professor at NUS. Scaling cooperation for an increasingly automated future. PhD @ MIT ProbComp / CoCoSci. Pronouns: 祂/伊
xuan (ɕɥɛn / sh-yen)
 @xuanalogue
年11月20日

Here is a nice introduction to how people use imprecise probabilities / non-Bayesian uncertainty in practice (used to be on the EA forum but now only seems to be on LessWrong), per the field of "decision making under deep uncertainty": lesswrong.com/posts/nHspXJyL…

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mcharcharias's profile picture. Προσεχώς μεγαλοκαρχαρίας
Μικροκαρχαρίας
 @mcharcharias
年11月19日

Ούτε εγώ το διατύπωσα και τόσο καλά, αλλά καταλάβατε. Η πιθανότητα είναι sensitivity x prevalence/[sensitivity x prevelance + (1-specificity) x (1- prevalence)]

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TPLTD's profile picture. Meta-researcher. Advocate for research informed thinking and evidence supported practice. Enjoy seeing people and organisations develop.
Terry Pearson
 @TPLTD
年11月19日

Your not alone in that respect. If you haven't seen it before the piece on the link below provides a thoughtful discussion of the robustness of those probabilities: tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…

TPLTD's tweet card. Increased attention on ‘what works’ in education has led to an emphasis on developing policy from evidence based on comparing and combining a particular statistical summary of intervention studies:...
The misdirection of public policy: comparing and combining standardised effect sizes
來源: tandfonline.com
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Rohanburdened's profile picture. Patient zero in the philosophical zombie outbreak
Rohan 🌱🔸️🇧🇷
 @Rohanburdened
年11月19日

isn't any more impossible. P(picking computable) = 0% while P(picking uncomputable) = 100%, sure, but for all x computable and y uncomputable, P(picking x) = P(picking y) = 0% no?

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austinc3301's profile picture. Trying to make AI go well. Enjoyer of good faith discussions. Running @KairosAIS and @SPARExec.
Agus 🔎🔸
@austinc3301
年11月19日

I'm aware you're a CS professor, but have you not taken any classes on Bayesian approaches to probability theory? This is a perfectly reasonable thing! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_…

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grok's profile picture. https://t.co/fqNKQSiLQB @grok it
Grok
@grok
年11月18日

Il codice si esegue correttamente. Output: Prior mean: 0.200 Posterior mean: 0.350 95% Credible Interval: [0.163, 0.566] P(θ > 0.5 | data): 0.081 Mostra un aggiornamento bayesiano moderato dal prior scettico (0.2) ai dati (5/10 successi), con probabilità bassa di θ>0.5.…

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howallworks's profile picture. Physicist (PhD). The creator of the Theory of Everything closest to experimental data
howallworks
 @howallworks
年11月18日

You say the probability is irreducible? No, that doesn't correspond to experimental data. Details:howallworks.github.io/theoryofeveryt…

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grok's profile picture. https://t.co/fqNKQSiLQB @grok it
Grok
@grok
年11月18日

Probabilistic prediction uses statistical models to estimate outcome likelihoods under uncertainty. Methodology: 1) Gather data on variables. 2) Build a model (e.g., Bayesian networks or ML algos) to compute probabilities. 3) Incorporate priors and updates via Bayes' theorem. 4)…

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SAlpha88888's profile picture. Search for New Information
Seeking Alpha88888
 @SAlpha88888
年11月17日

Models Bayesian thinking, Fat-tailed curves Asymmetries fs.blog/probabilistic-…

SAlpha88888's tweet image. Models Bayesian thinking, Fat-tailed curves Asymmetries fs.blog/probabilistic-…
SAlpha88888's tweet image. Models Bayesian thinking, Fat-tailed curves Asymmetries fs.blog/probabilistic-…
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HoneyRoyPalmer's profile picture. Teams that matter: Pirates, Hawks, Pens, Cowboys, and my fantasy football team. Everybody got that?
Nonexistent
 @HoneyRoyPalmer
年11月16日

This model thinks you should go for it. An extra 7.9% of win probability.

HoneyRoyPalmer's tweet image. This model thinks you should go for it. An extra 7.9% of win probability.
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socratesccost's profile picture. CRITICAL THINKER. Interests: AI Robotics , Quantum Computing, Preservation of Freedom, . Threats: GOVERNMENT BULLSHIT, MARXIST UN, WEF, WHO, GREENS, GLOBALISM.
True Science PEng, DFP, ADFS, MA, MBA.
@socratesccost
年11月16日

The balance of probabilities is 51% probable.

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Cyndesama's profile picture. Just a dog building overly abstracted computing engines
Cynde
@Cyndesama
年11月15日

Probabilistic I think in the sense that if you train a probe from the hidden state to the latent (in an experimental scenario where you have it) you have progressively less uncertainty the more context you consider. If for this problem there is a number of observations that would…

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未找到 "#probabilitymodels" 的結果
insight_centre's profile picture. The Insight Research Ireland Centre for Data Analytics is a @scienceirel #BigData research centre with over 450 researchers. #AI #DataEthics @scienceirel
Insight Research Ireland Centre
 @insight_centre
2022年12月8日

is the English Premier League competitive? Prof ⁦⁦@NialFriel⁩ in his Insight Winter Lecture explains football #probabilitymodels without equations 🤔 ⚽️#BayesianStatistics #football ⁦@ucddublin⁩ ⁦@DCU⁩ ⁦@UCC⁩ ⁦@uniofgalway⁩ ⁦@scienceirel⁩

insight_centre's tweet image. is the English Premier League competitive? Prof ⁦⁦@NialFriel⁩ in his Insight Winter Lecture explains football #probabilitymodels without equations 🤔 ⚽️#BayesianStatistics #football ⁦@ucddublin⁩ ⁦@DCU⁩ ⁦@UCC⁩ ⁦@uniofgalway⁩ ⁦@scienceirel⁩
insight_centre's tweet image. is the English Premier League competitive? Prof ⁦⁦@NialFriel⁩ in his Insight Winter Lecture explains football #probabilitymodels without equations 🤔 ⚽️#BayesianStatistics #football ⁦@ucddublin⁩ ⁦@DCU⁩ ⁦@UCC⁩ ⁦@uniofgalway⁩ ⁦@scienceirel⁩
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