Chess by the Numbers
@ChessNumbers
Chess fan, spreadsheet fan, stats fan. http://Chess.com author: https://www.chess.com/article/view/chess-prodigy-watch
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Faustino Oro, just 11 years old, now boasts a live rating over 2500!!! He beat Pichot (2588) today to move to an astounding 5.5/6 at the ongoing Legends and Prodigies tournament, where just half a point in the final three rounds will cement his first GM norm.
Congratulations to Giri, Bluebaum, Vaishali, and Lagno! See you all in the Candidates!
Here are scenarios for how results on each of the top four boards of the Women's Grand Swiss could affect who earns the two Candidates berths. It's probably gonna be Lagno and Vaishali... but three other contenders are still in the mix.
Here is a breakdown of how the three top boards affect the Candidates qualification chances of all players with any hopes of a top two finish. Base odds going into the round, and how the odds shift based on results in the given game.
In the course of analyzing Grand Swiss tiebreaks I have confirmed it is possible for a berth in the Candidates to be decided by drawing lots.
So just for fun, if you were in charge of the rules, how would YOU set an activity requirement for eligibility to qualify to the Candidates by rating? Not a debate about having a ratings spot, JUST if there has to be one but only for active players, how would you define active?
The September Prodigy Watch update is live chess.com/article/view/c…
A bit ago I wrote an article "Can Pragg be caught in the FIDE Circuit" and I said yes, even if not too likely. But he just got his 4TH 20+ point event score of the year and at this point no. He won't be caught. But if he wins the Grand Swiss the battle for 2nd gets interesting!
The most exciting player today? Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus: ♟️ Second-youngest to reach top 100 ever ♟️ Highest-rated 14-year-old ever (2642) ♟️ Highest-rated 13-year-old ever (2626) ♟️ Highest-rated 12-year-old ever (2569) ♟️ Youngest-ever 2600 player chess.com/news/view/erdo…
chess.com
Erdogmus Enters World Top-100 At 14, Breaks Yet Another Age Record
At just 14 years old, Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus has officially broken into the world's top-100 players, a milestone that once again confirms his status as one of the chess world's most exciting prospects.
Here are a few players' peak ratings as of Bodhana Sivanandan's current age that I selected (with bias) because I found them interesting. Historical ranks included because I don't want my selection bias to misinform.
Updated Prodigy Watch for the August rating list! A number of notable gainers this month! chess.com/article/view/c…
Congrats to Bodhana Sivanandan on breaking Hou Yifan's record, and becoming the first 10-year-old to earn a WGM norm! 🏴🥳 She also beat a 2400+ player for the first time (!!), and is back over 2200! 👏👏 s1.chess-results.com/tnrWZ.aspx?lan… 📷: Shahid Ahmed #chess #womeninchess
Stealth edit to chess.com/article/view/c… just went live, there is now a second table with girls who have a top-50 prodigy rank included! @OnTheQueenside
And the July update of Prodigy Watch is live! Remember that chess.com/article/view/c… is a permanent page, not a one-off article, so you can bookmark it and check back periodically. Also it might be another week, but this month's update will eventually include a girls' list too!
I took a crack at trying to demystify the FIDE Circuit a little bit: chess.com/article/view/f…
And Prodigy Watch is back!!! chess.com/article/view/c…
Played my first non-bullet game in a very long time (don't get too excited, just 3/2), and clearly my win was never in doubt lol
Prodigy Watch has finally made a return! It's nested in the bottom section of the @chesscom monthly ratings update from @TarjeiJS. This will be regularly maintained, it's not a one-off, the feature IS in fact back! Huzzah! chess.com/news/view/june…
I did in fact notice that this bullet move left my rook open to attack, but tbh 100% of my reasoning was "but maybe they won't notice and I can take their rook instead" - which is actually what happened. I did NOT have Bb4+ lined up for actual justification lol. But I'll take !!
You can see all these numbers have moved a little towards 50% relative to the initial odds. The fewer games left (in a tied match), the better for the initial underdog's upset chances. But so far that movement is small. 6 games out of 14 still leaves a lot of chess left to play!
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