Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Chess fan, spreadsheet fan, stats fan. http://Chess.com author: https://www.chess.com/article/view/chess-prodigy-watch

Eugene, OR

chess.com/article/view/c…

Joined February 2015

4KPosts 9KFollowers 430Following

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Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Nov 1

Here are the 20 players with at least a 1% chance of winning the World Cup according to my model (but I'm mostly watching that column with odds of finishing top-3, aren't you?)

ChessNumbers's tweet image. Here are the 20 players with at least a 1% chance of winning the World Cup according to my model (but I'm mostly watching that column with odds of finishing top-3, aren't you?)

Faustino Oro, just 11 years old, now boasts a live rating over 2500!!! He beat Pichot (2588) today to move to an astounding 5.5/6 at the ongoing Legends and Prodigies tournament, where just half a point in the final three rounds will cement his first GM norm.

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Sep 15

Congratulations to Giri, Bluebaum, Vaishali, and Lagno! See you all in the Candidates!

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Sep 15

Here are scenarios for how results on each of the top four boards of the Women's Grand Swiss could affect who earns the two Candidates berths. It's probably gonna be Lagno and Vaishali... but three other contenders are still in the mix.

ChessNumbers's tweet image. Here are scenarios for how results on each of the top four boards of the Women's Grand Swiss could affect who earns the two Candidates berths. It's probably gonna be Lagno and Vaishali... but three other contenders are still in the mix.

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Sep 14

Here is a breakdown of how the three top boards affect the Candidates qualification chances of all players with any hopes of a top two finish. Base odds going into the round, and how the odds shift based on results in the given game.

ChessNumbers's tweet image. Here is a breakdown of how the three top boards affect the Candidates qualification chances of all players with any hopes of a top two finish. Base odds going into the round, and how the odds shift based on results in the given game.

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Sep 14

In the course of analyzing Grand Swiss tiebreaks I have confirmed it is possible for a berth in the Candidates to be decided by drawing lots.

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Sep 2

So just for fun, if you were in charge of the rules, how would YOU set an activity requirement for eligibility to qualify to the Candidates by rating? Not a debate about having a ratings spot, JUST if there has to be one but only for active players, how would you define active?

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Aug 31

The September Prodigy Watch update is live chess.com/article/view/c…

ChessNumbers's tweet card. This page shows the young chess stars whose current FIDE ratings stack up best against the top players of all time at their same age.

Chess.com Prodigy Watch

Source: chess.com

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Aug 28

A bit ago I wrote an article "Can Pragg be caught in the FIDE Circuit" and I said yes, even if not too likely. But he just got his 4TH 20+ point event score of the year and at this point no. He won't be caught. But if he wins the Grand Swiss the battle for 2nd gets interesting!

ChessNumbers's tweet image. A bit ago I wrote an article "Can Pragg be caught in the FIDE Circuit" and I said yes, even if not too likely.

But he just got his 4TH 20+ point event score of the year and at this point no. He won't be caught. But if he wins the Grand Swiss the battle for 2nd gets interesting!

Chess by the Numbers reposted

Tarjei J. Svensen

@TarjeiJS

Aug 3

The most exciting player today? Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus: ♟️ Second-youngest to reach top 100 ever ♟️ Highest-rated 14-year-old ever (2642) ♟️ Highest-rated 13-year-old ever (2626) ♟️ Highest-rated 12-year-old ever (2569) ♟️ Youngest-ever 2600 player chess.com/news/view/erdo…

TarjeiJS's tweet card. At just 14 years old, Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus has officially broken into the world's top-100 players, a milestone that once again confirms his status as one of the chess world's most exciting prospects.

Erdogmus Enters World Top-100 At 14, Breaks Yet Another Age Record

Source: chess.com

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Jul 31

Here are a few players' peak ratings as of Bodhana Sivanandan's current age that I selected (with bias) because I found them interesting. Historical ranks included because I don't want my selection bias to misinform.

ChessNumbers's tweet image. Here are a few players' peak ratings as of Bodhana Sivanandan's current age that I selected (with bias) because I found them interesting. Historical ranks included because I don't want my selection bias to misinform.

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Jul 31

Updated Prodigy Watch for the August rating list! A number of notable gainers this month! chess.com/article/view/c…

Chess.com Prodigy Watch

Source: chess.com

Chess by the Numbers reposted

Women's Chess Coverage

@OnTheQueenside

Jul 27

Congrats to Bodhana Sivanandan on breaking Hou Yifan's record, and becoming the first 10-year-old to earn a WGM norm! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🥳 She also beat a 2400+ player for the first time (!!), and is back over 2200! 👏👏 s1.chess-results.com/tnrWZ.aspx?lan… 📷: Shahid Ahmed #chess #womeninchess

OnTheQueenside's tweet image. Congrats to Bodhana Sivanandan on breaking Hou Yifan's record, and becoming the first 10-year-old to earn a WGM norm! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🥳

She also beat a 2400+ player for the first time (!!), and is back over 2200! 👏👏

s1.chess-results.com/tnrWZ.aspx?lan…
📷: Shahid Ahmed
#chess #womeninchess

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Jul 9

Stealth edit to chess.com/article/view/c… just went live, there is now a second table with girls who have a top-50 prodigy rank included! @OnTheQueenside

Chess.com Prodigy Watch

Source: chess.com

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Jul 1

And the July update of Prodigy Watch is live! Remember that chess.com/article/view/c… is a permanent page, not a one-off article, so you can bookmark it and check back periodically. Also it might be another week, but this month's update will eventually include a girls' list too!

Chess.com Prodigy Watch

Source: chess.com

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Jul 1

I took a crack at trying to demystify the FIDE Circuit a little bit: chess.com/article/view/f…

ChessNumbers's tweet card. Tai Pruce-Zimmerman reviews the current FIDE Circuit standings for Chess.com.

Can Pragg Be Caught in the FIDE Circuit?

Source: chess.com

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Jun 19

And Prodigy Watch is back!!! chess.com/article/view/c…

Chess.com Prodigy Watch

Source: chess.com

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Jun 15

Played my first non-bullet game in a very long time (don't get too excited, just 3/2), and clearly my win was never in doubt lol

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

Jun 4

Prodigy Watch has finally made a return! It's nested in the bottom section of the @chesscom monthly ratings update from @TarjeiJS. This will be regularly maintained, it's not a one-off, the feature IS in fact back! Huzzah! chess.com/news/view/june…

ChessNumbers's tweet card. The June 2025 FIDE rating list saw World Champion Gukesh Dommaraju drop 11 points and two spots after SuperBet Chess Classic, while the winner of the event, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, gained 9 points.

June 2025 FIDE Ratings: Giri Rises, Shogdzhiev, Oro, Erdogmus Reach New Highs

Source: chess.com

Chess by the Numbers

@ChessNumbers

May 16

I did in fact notice that this bullet move left my rook open to attack, but tbh 100% of my reasoning was "but maybe they won't notice and I can take their rook instead" - which is actually what happened. I did NOT have Bb4+ lined up for actual justification lol. But I'll take !!