ContraTurtle
@ContraTurtleX
Senior Solutions Software Engineer @ North American Tech (8 yrs). Translating Tech field insights to investing edge. 🐢21% CAGR since portfolio inception🐢
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I've started a free tech investing newsletter, contraturtle.com/sign-up/ as a Solutions Eng (8yrs) sharing notes whilst running a 21% CAGR portfolio: - Boots-on-the-ground signals analysts miss when analyzing tech businesses - Close-up view of US, China, and SEA tech ecosystems For…
Cool
Here's a list of the main concentrated fund managers (<14 positions) sorted by portfolio size. Chris Hohn and Bill Ackman are leading the pack.
$META Reels Monetization Timeline: - Q3 20': Launched in August 2020 - Q2 22': $1 billion run rate - Q3 22': $3 billion run rate - Q2 23': $10 billion run rate - Q3 25': "Reels now has an annual run rate of over $50 billion".
$meta alpha alert: “In Q3, we made improvements to GEM’s model architecture that doubled the performance benefit we get from adding a given amount of data and compute. This will enable us to continue scaling up the amount of training capacity we use on GEM at an attractive ROI”
$META recent sell-off feels like a 2022-conditioned reflex to the words “increased capex” in Q3 earnings. When $AAPL introduced App Tracking Transparency (ATT) in 2021–22, I was there in the trenches, working on technical work related to Facebook advertising and witnessed…
WARREN BUFFETT JUST SENT WHAT COULD BE HIS LAST MESSAGE TO BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY $BRK.B SHAREHOLDERS AS CEO OF THE COMPANY Here is the full and entire 8 page press release Warren Buffett just released ⬇️⬇️ To My Fellow Shareholders: I will no longer be writing Berkshire’s…
Awesome
$AXON Loredo, TX. Loredo pulls out of drone deal with BRINC to re-award $3.4 million contract it to Axon! BRINC was apparently moving too slow and missing deadlines. Something Axon doesn’t do. Axon ecosystem getting the W 🤝 Intact investing thesis lmtonline.com/local/article/…
Just went through $NET ’s Q3 earnings. $NET ’s push to become a 'tollbooth' for AI crawlers sounds promising at first, but on closer reflection, it feels more extractive than additive. When $MA and $V built their 'tollbooth' payment networks, they expanded the economic pie by…
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WARREN BUFFETT TO RELEASE FAREWELL LETTER MONDAY AS BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY SHOWS ITS STABILITY FOR INVESTORS.
In 2022, $META faced not only capex doubts(RL) but also $AAPL ATT, Tiktok and Fed turmoil. In 2025, $META is only facing capex doubts(AI). Not a fortune teller, but pretty sure we’re not going down -75% like before. contraturtle.com/earnings-meta-…
Just bought some $META. As most of you know, I have been reducing my $META position in the weeks before $META's earnings, as I was worried about the CapEx bomb that I expected Zuck to drop. The fundamental earnings results from $META were above my expectations and just show…
People worry about $MSI LMR moat + new SVX cams. But $AXON moved upstream with Carbyne & Prepared acquisitions, shifting dispatch to the cloud. That’s the beginning of the end for legacy LMR lock-in. I believe $MSI is shitting their pants now. The camera war is a distraction.
I went through past 16 quarters' $AXON investor deck and noticed TAM grows at 34.7% CAGR 🤡
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Exclusive: Anthropic Projects $70 Billion in Revenue, $17 Billion in Cash Flow in 2028 Anthropic projects twice as much revenue from selling AI models to businesses this year as OpenAI does. Read more from @srimuppidi 👇 theinformation.com/articles/anthr…
I’ve travelled to China 8 times as a Solutions Engineer for a US tech company. After years of on-the-ground observations, I believe there’s only ONE publicly listed Chinese stock worth investing in. Have a read: contraturtle.com/the-only-china…
Anyone caught $AMZN x Openai press release stating expansion beyond $NVDA is CPUs not Trainium asics? Either, - Openai rejected Trainium offer and would rather use CPUs than a more cost-efficient asic or - Trainium 2 is too over-architected towards Anthropic workloads (From Q3…
Cool.. where's the money coming from though 🤔
OpenAI has now: 1. Signed $500 billion Stargate deal 2. Signed $100 billion Nvidia deal 3. Signed $100 billion AMD deal 4. Signed $38 billion Amazon deal 5. Signed $25 billion Intel deal 6. Signed $20 billion TSMC deal 7. Signed $13 billion Microsoft deal 8. Signed $10 Billion…
Free premium newsletter article on $AMZN Q3 earnings. Covers, - The real constraints on hyperscalers' capacities - Subtle yellow flag in @ajassy 's remarks on Trainium 2 - Thoughts on why $AMZN hasn't integrated with ChatGPT Instant Checkout Enjoy... 🐢 contraturtle.com/amzn-q3-earnin…
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