Devolved Election Projections
@DevolvedVotes
Tool to project your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️ Donate: https://buymeacoffee.com/devolvedelections
We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales. We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings. It tracks parties, seats and key ideologies. We'll update it regularly to show changes. 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect? We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that parties win their target seats. Wales, Scotland and London are in the works. 👉devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
Our projection for Scottish Parl '26 based on the @NorstatUKPolls poll for @thetimes : 🎗️ SNP — 56 ➡️ Ref — 24 🌹 Lab — 20 🐤 LD — 12 🌳 Con — 10 🌱 GP — 7 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪ Other — 0 From @devolvedelections devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Holyrood Projection based on the latest Survation/Scotland in Union Poll: 🎗️ SNP — 63 🌹 Lab — 18 ➡️ Ref — 18 🌳 Con — 12 🐤 LD — 11 🌱 GP — 7 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪ Other — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
We've finalised our Presidential projection with Connolly, Gavin and Humphreys as the only candidates to be nominated. Play around with transfer rates and first preferences to see who could win! Presets will be added once polls come in. irishelections.ie/presidential/
A projection based on the latest Barn Cymru poll for YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University for Senedd ‘26: ➡️ Ref — 37 🌼 PC — 36 🌹 Lab — 13 🌳 Con — 5 🐤 LD — 3 🌱 GP — 2 From @DevolvedVotes
We've been busy on the other site as Ireland's presidential election gets into full swing!
We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection! Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner. irishelections.ie/presidential/
We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection! It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss. Just click it again for a different scenario. devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-irela…
Graham Simpson (Central Region) defects from Conservative to Reform becoming their only MSP. He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West. devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Our first guest opinion piece from Lewis Norton looking ahead to the elections in Scotland and Wales. 2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-to…
We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election. DUP + UUP + TUV: 38 A Unified Party: 38 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-un…
A projection based on the latest @BelTel / @LucidTalk poll for NI Assembly ‘27: ☘️ SF — 24 🦁 DUP — 16 🤝 AP — 14 🔷 UUP — 10 🌹 SDLP — 10 Ⓣ TUV — 12 ✊ PBP — 2 🌱 GP — 1 ⚫ Ind — 1 From @DevolvedVotes devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-irela…
Our Nowcast has Reform in first place Senedd polling. But, with no realistic route to government. ➡️ Ref — 31 🌼 PC — 28 🌹 Lab — 25 🌳 Con — 6 🐤 LD — 4 🌱 GP — 2 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Polling suggests Reform could become the largest party in the 2026 Welsh Senedd elections. In 'Turn Right for Wales', journalist @WillHayCardiff considers a potential watershed moment in British politics. Listen on @BBCRadio4 this Sunday & on @BBCSounds bbc.in/47b7Yj1
🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data. We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense. 📊 Real-time seat forecasts 📈 Constituency breakdowns 🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers 👉
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