Our latest experiment looking at Reform UK's chances in Northern Ireland based on the most recent @LucidTalk poll, in @SluggerOToole sluggerotoole.com/2025/11/15/som…
Wales overnight, Scotland the next day. Perfect. Hopefully, the Senedd doesn't follow Scotland's lead by selfishly insisting we get some sleep.
NEW: Holyrood 2026 will NOT have an overnight count Instead, votes will be counted on the Friday after the polls close Nervous waits all round and, critically, more time for spin/narrative setting for winners and losers...
A projection for the next NI Assembly based on the latest @LucidTalk/@BelTel poll ☘️ SF — 23 🦁 DUP — 17 🤝 AP — 12 🔷 UUP — 10 🌹 SDLP — 11 Ⓣ TUV — 12 ✊ PBP — 2 🌱 GP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-irela…
Currently, Labour are well clear of getting 0 seats. The line for complete wipeout is at about 4%, Labour are on about 19% nationally.
There’s a sense of unreality here from the ‘Welsh Labour source’ because this constituency level poll syncs entirely with the nationwide MRP polls. As seen in Will’s newsletter, Labour are close to going under the threshold for *any* seats in next May’s #Senedd26 election. 🤯
We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales. We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings. It tracks parties, seats and key ideologies. We'll update it regularly to show changes. 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect? We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that parties win their target seats. Wales, Scotland and London are in the works. 👉devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
Our projection for Scottish Parl '26 based on the @NorstatUKPolls poll for @thetimes : 🎗️ SNP — 56 ➡️ Ref — 24 🌹 Lab — 20 🐤 LD — 12 🌳 Con — 10 🌱 GP — 7 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪ Other — 0 From @devolvedelections devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
devolvedelections.co.uk
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
Holyrood Projection based on the latest Survation/Scotland in Union Poll: 🎗️ SNP — 63 🌹 Lab — 18 ➡️ Ref — 18 🌳 Con — 12 🐤 LD — 11 🌱 GP — 7 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪ Other — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
We've finalised our Presidential projection with Connolly, Gavin and Humphreys as the only candidates to be nominated. Play around with transfer rates and first preferences to see who could win! Presets will be added once polls come in. irishelections.ie/presidential/
A projection based on the latest Barn Cymru poll for YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University for Senedd ‘26: ➡️ Ref — 37 🌼 PC — 36 🌹 Lab — 13 🌳 Con — 5 🐤 LD — 3 🌱 GP — 2 From @DevolvedVotes
We've been busy on the other site as Ireland's presidential election gets into full swing!
We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection! Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner. irishelections.ie/presidential/
We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection! It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss. Just click it again for a different scenario. devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-irela…
Graham Simpson (Central Region) defects from Conservative to Reform becoming their only MSP. He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West. devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Our first guest opinion piece from Lewis Norton looking ahead to the elections in Scotland and Wales. 2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-to…
We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election. DUP + UUP + TUV: 38 A Unified Party: 38 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-un…
A projection based on the latest @BelTel / @LucidTalk poll for NI Assembly ‘27: ☘️ SF — 24 🦁 DUP — 16 🤝 AP — 14 🔷 UUP — 10 🌹 SDLP — 10 Ⓣ TUV — 12 ✊ PBP — 2 🌱 GP — 1 ⚫ Ind — 1 From @DevolvedVotes devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-irela…
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