Fré 🪺🐦🌳☀️
@Fre_His_Notes
I use Twitter as a notepad for world but mostly financial news. Retweets aren't related to my opinion just info that might be useful.
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People ask where the market is going? An incomplete question. Over what duration?
Credit card debt as a % of disposable income is flat over the past year. We hear quite often how credit card debt is up a lot, but so are disposable incomes. This is still below 2019 levels btw.
Volgens studies zal geplande EU regelgeving elk jaar tot 80 miljard euro extra kosten. Europa komt er eindelijk achter dat extra regulering leidt tot lagere groei. Goede bedoelingen, slecht resultaat. Tijd voor veel minder regels en veel meer groei. economist.com/europe/2025/11…
One of the most important Bitcoin charts you have most likely never seen. Notice how many times Bitcoin has found support at this estimated cost of production red line. The line currently sits at $70,000. This is not just on-chain data—this is a cost of production model for…
Nasdaq P/E has cooled to 27x.. was > 30x just not long ago GS
My view has not changed since 2019. In 2019 btc market cap was $100B ($5k btc). This chart said btc mcap would grow to $1T ($50k btc) in 2020-2024 halving period (blue arrow). It did. The same chart shows $10T mcap / $500k btc for 2028 (red arrow). That is still my view.
95.5% of all debt is paid on time. Down a tad from last quarter's 95.6%, still better than Q4 2019's 95.3% and 93.3% in Q4 '07. Interestingly, 120-day delinquent improved and severely derogatory was flat.
How often does stock market decline? 1% drop: 50-60 times a year 3% drop: 7-8 times a year 5% drop: 3-4 times a year 10% drop: every 1.1 years 15% drop: every 2 years 20% drop: every 3 ½ years 25% drop: every 5-7 years (S&P 500 avg since 1928)
S&P 500 found support near the early October lows and upward trending 20-week EMA. Huge spike in volume last week on SPY and VIX up around where past lows have taken place as well.
23% of NASDAQ 100 stocks were oversold on Thursday (RSI below 30). Was Thursday the bottom for stocks? 🤔
November historically bottoms on November 20th before the seasonal late month rally. What is more interesting is one the weaker parts of the year is Nov 18-20. Looks to have played out this year, now will the rally?
Ook #Chatcontrol passeerde nog even. Blijven herhalen: encryptie is 1 of 0. Er is geen tussenweg, geen nuance. Of je hebt encryptie en online privacy, of je hebt het niet. In dat laatste scenario zou de EU geen haar beter zijn dan de vele totalitaire regimes die we kennen.
#Moneycontrol in De Markt (VRT). De fiscus is al de best geïnformeerde dienst in België. AI & algoritmes loslaten op een gigantische databank, zal niet zorgen voor meer geld. Wel drama’s, zoals de Toeslagenaffaire in Nederland. Gericht werken op grote fraudeurs is de boodschap.
Things you usually don't see with the S&P 500 2.3% away from all-time highs. * The Economist with another over-the-top bearish cover about how a crash is imminent * AAII bears at 49%, highest with stocks near ATHs since April 2013 * CNN Fear & Greed in Extreme Fear.
Only3️⃣times in history have the AAII bears outnumbers the bulls by 10% or more the full year. 1990, 2008, and 2022. All were bear markets and bad years for investors. It could happen this year, yet stocks are up nicely. Most hated rally ever? Hard to say exactly, but maybe.
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It is almost like as the bull market continues, this goes lower.
With an economy that is growing around trend, strong earnings, a dovish Fed, and huge equity gains the past 3 years, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is more dour now than it was during a 100-yr pandemic or the GFC. Truly fascinating backdrop for this rally to continue.
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