Marko Papic
@Geo_papic
BCA Research. Geomacro strategist. Author of Geopolitical Alpha. Podcast host of "Geopolitical Cousins." Views on Twitter are my own.
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In 2014, I published a report @bcaresearch titled Apex of Globalisation. I actually wanted to title it "The End of..." but it was too bold. The reasons for the "end" have little to do with this war. It's all about multipolarity. cnbc.com/2022/03/24/bla…
Remember back like decades ago when we were all obsessing about whether US or China would win the 5G race? Oh wait. No. That was like... 2021! 🤣
A must read from my Santa Monica "neighbors" the @RANDCorporation on US-China rivarly. This could be a sign that the US security establishment is maturing and that normative/moralistic approach is out. A big deal for global geopolitical stability. rand.org/pubs/research_…
What happens to commodities if China so much as shows a sign of life? Chinese has not mattered for commodities since the pandemic. The growth catalyst shifted from TSF to US fiscal policy. If China (and other non-US economies) so much as put a floor in growth, look out!
This is a controversial point... But I think that the Buenos Aires Consensus Bond Bear market is over. Too many commentators think that US deficits will just remain at 6% of GDP forever. I think they will be half of that by end of decade. It is what voters want. See below.
Geopolitical détente with China... while preparing to bomb Venezuela and threatening... Nigeria? Trade détente with China... while breaking off negotiations with Canada over a TV ad. The ultimate "HOLD ME BACK" foreign policy! 😃
Amazing World Series. Maybe one of the best. I know that the series has been seen as somewhat of a Canada vs. US competition (which is silly since only ONE "Canadian" played across the two teams). But the real winner is baseball. (OK... also... Japan! 🇯🇵)
"God bless both China and the USA!" The G2 is also an important term, one that China has been trying to get the US to use for years. Obviously geopolitical rivalry continues, but I think that it is safe to use the term detente.
I just spoke to President Trump, and we agree — the relationship between the United States and China has never been better. Following President Trump’s historic meeting with Chairman Xi in South Korea, I had an equally positive meeting with my counterpart, China’s Minister of…
The Asia Pacific is abuzz over the Trump-Xi summit — and for good reason. It shows rivals can still make deals. Trump’s amoral “19th-century” approach drops the moralizing that long blocked progress. Expect allies like Australia to follow suit with pragmatic “Australia First”…
youtube.com
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Trump-Xi talks are likely to produce a deal of substance, says...
The latest podcast with my Cousin @JacobShap is out! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rev…
A quick reaction to the U.S.-Australia rare earth mineral deal, which is a BIG deal! However, it is a 5-10 year project. Not a “tomorrow” thing. Nonetheless, relevant for the U.S.-China competition.
Missed among the cacophony of the most recent US-China trade spat is Taipei's rejection of Washington's proposal that 50% of semiconductors be produced in the U.S. This is a big deal and signals that de-coupling is just not going to happen. In this short video, I explain why! I…
Latest episode of Geopolitical Cousins has dropped! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
Can I have all my followers go to the BCA Research "Have Your Say" poll website and give us your thoughts on various market moves? Would love to get more answers to this poll! Thank you! bcaresearch.com/have-your-say
Balance sheet trimming. Who knew that would be the phrase of the week? 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 (except USD!)
What is everyone doing in a week's time? If you want some premium GeoMacro-ing, come to the BCA Research annual event in midtown NYC! Here is the information: bcaresearch.com/marketing/the-…
I would highly recommend speaking to my friend @ShanghaiMacro if you are interested in what is going on with the China-US relationship.
I’ve just released a brief note explaining why investors should avoid overreacting to Beijing’s retaliation against Hanwha and its US subsidiaries. If you’d like to receive our insights, feel free to reach out at [email protected].
Great question by the Great @Peter_Turchin... It's easy to stay disappointed in life when disappointment is all you prepared for. But when your elite parents prepared you for a life of supposedly meaningful accomplishments and you end up being someone's serf... how to deal with…
Interesting article about Roy Baumeister's research on psychological effects of rejection. Direct effect of overproduction of elite aspirants is increasing numbers of "surplus elites". How do they deal with rejection and what is its effect on society? bbc.com/portuguese/art…
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