Douglas
@MMTmacrotrader
Macro Trading, Flow Following, Deep Learning Model Building. CEO Modern Macro Technologies http://youtube.com/@mmtmacrotrader
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The MMT Macro Trader Starter Pack - Data Driven Applied MMT Analysis Videos: Trading youtu.be/WTK1liv6Og4 Employment youtu.be/RlXhr8QOYcU Inflation youtu.be/lzpDXNE1CZ8 Rates youtu.be/75d6-zoDLE4 Tweets/🧵 Unemployment Inflation…
The Goal: Build a deep learning neural network using only sectoral balances to predict the unemployment rate. Why? To see if core MMT data can explain unemployment and validate a deep learning architecture for further macro & market analysis. An MMT Research 🧵 1/11
Massive surplus during a technology bubble, we're going to party like its 1999!
🚨 WOW! The United States ran a nearly $200 BILLION surplus in September, Scott Bessent revealed The deficit shrank by $41 billion "September’s monthly surplus of $198 billion was the largest surplus of any September on record and 147% higher than last year." "FY 2025’s…
It can not be stressed enough that flows (new reserves) are rapidly deteriorating at the most inopportune time. Now more than ever understanding MMT and the mechanics government spending matters.
Putting this all together 🧵 If the government shutdown extends into November as betting markets currently suggest the US financial system will be operating under an “ample reserves” framework with increasingly scarce reserves. This reserve scarcity places acute strain on…
Few might remember this but we had a president once shut down the global economy, crash markets, and then hand out thousand dollar stimmys to everyone.
TRUMP SAYS HE IS CONSIDERING TAXPAYER REBATES OF $1,000 TO $2,000 USING TARIFF MONEY
Very few guys on here have an actual understanding of the plumbing. @MMTmacrotrader is one of them. Watch: youtube.com/watch?v=3ynl-g…
The 18 month divergence between Tax Receipt Acceleration and Bank Credit is starting to get concerning. The implication here is that little of the credit expansion were seeing is going to productive growth. Means we're probably quite a ways up the Minsky curve at this point.
Throughout the worst of the selling DeepMMT remained bullish, seeing the selloff as a massive dislocation of price relative to flows. According to the model, the current rally has a ways to go until it gets back to where price is properly reflecting flows.
~$120B tax drain over 2 weeks, RRP empty, liquidity signaling tight and a possible govt shutdown. October shaping up to be a very volatile month. Keep an eye on the flows!
Going Live 🔴 at 5:00 pm et Discussing the impact of todays rate cuts and the implication on markets heading into next year. tldr: its not inflation risk, its a market crash risk. 🔗👇
If today does not mark a major reversal in the dollar then we are cooked. The dollar should rally here, under "normal" circumstances. A failure to rally means the rest of the world no longer cares to export to the U.S. In real terms, this is devastating for the America. To be…
Rate cuts, at this point in the cycle, just pull forward so many of the systemic risks that have been brewing underneath the surface for the past 5 years or so. The impact of higher interest income on both the macro economy and portfolios can not be understated.
📌 Bitcoin's price isn't driven by "Fed liquidity." It's fiscal flows. A thread, based on @MMTmacrotrader's work. 🧵1/14
Using MMT to Forecast Bitcoin [with data science] youtu.be/CPikXZPBLdw?si… via @YouTube
![ProfSteveKeen's tweet card. Using MMT to Forecast Bitcoin [with data science]](https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1986147441633337344/iQTjqJEs?format=jpg&name=orig)
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Using MMT to Forecast Bitcoin [with data science]
Retail sales booming and being carried by the top 10% of income earners. Keep telling yourself higher rates & the accompanying interest income don't impact growth because of MPC and the data will continue to prove your wrong.
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