Matthiew K. Miceus
@MatthiewM
“Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it's faced" - Baldwin African History, Certified Cook, Economics, Futures.
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in one way or another - be it Wicksell or Taylor - all monetary policy thesis contains this formula, the Fisher Effect. add a subscript t and a vol factor and you have the US 10 year risk free rate
in the end this is what will determine the US Treasury 10 year rate when reserve levels become set and Fed no longer has excuse/reason to enter US Treasury market for 40 bil or so a month r= real GDP i = nominal rate pie euler = inflation
Trying to put together a rate based model for US macro and some interesting stuff is already popping out of it. First, fed funds rate is inflationary when govt debt is high, and lowering that rate lowers income. This requires it be made up in other places, ie duration +…
Hmm after trumps rant today this is still holds true
You obviously never stepped food on us Soil.
The World You Grew Up In No Longer Exists, Obesity will be a thing of the past very soon. America will look massively different by 2030, if not even by the end of 2028 as this rolls out through pharmacies everywhere.
A great example on how folks are playing the consensus game now, the Keynes multi level beauty contest detached from reality. The concentration is into only sentiment, to be most deeply ensconced into sentiment than most, is what analysis is now - with craft being only this.
No matter how bad life gets at least I never wore jogger chinos
Roasted Poussin, Pommes Anna, Red Wine Jus
this yr really showed me everyone wants a village but nobody wants to be a villager.
Am becoming relaxed over being ghost banned here. I know my content is some of the best macro, monetary and political analysis in relationship to markets there is available. And the substack is cheapest there is at $10 a month. I rest on my record which is damn good
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