OSGbyte's profile picture. Polymath in progress, MEV fanatic and アニメが大好きです!

OSGbyte

@OSGbyte

Polymath in progress, MEV fanatic and アニメが大好きです!

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🚨 New paper out! We analyze arbitrage strategies on @Polymarket and show how traders extracted $40M over one year by exploiting inefficiencies. With @lululixious , Vahid Ghafouri, Guillermo Suarez 1/🧵 Thread 👇


And this is how you can possibly end up being sandwiched and losing money. Maybe I should do some notes on why copy trading can be dangerous

another good reason why people would want to copy trade other traders on prediction markets is due to their domain expertise. let me explain: many successful traders in prediction markets have specialized knowledge or deep insights into specific fields or events > politics,…



OSGbyte reposted

He was 31 A country that cannot protect its youth cannot protect its future


This is actually the most important question I was having with Prediction Markets. Unless there can be real use cases of hedging is more "gambling" than financial instrument.

Prediction markets lack this natural hedging demand. There's no convincing yes-or-no binary outcome I’ve seen that a corporate treasurer or pension fund would want to hedge against in a binary way, that couldn’t be done better with a regular, linear payoff, with a regular future.…



Open question is there any prediction market working on the P2P architecture🤔


OSGbyte reposted

Caruana, a natural attacking player, played the passive 3 c3 here yesterday. It would be impossible to imagine Fischer or Kasparov playing such a passive move. A thread 🧵 on how modern computers change chess in a bad way, and why I prefer Freestyle:

PHChess's tweet image. Caruana, a natural attacking player, played the passive 3 c3 here yesterday.

It would be impossible to imagine Fischer or Kasparov playing such a passive move. 

A thread 🧵 on how modern computers change chess in a bad way, and why I prefer Freestyle:

OSGbyte reposted

Huge computer science result: A Tsinghua professor JUST discovered the fastest shortest path algorithm for graphs in 40yrs. This improves on Turing award winner Tarjan’s O(m + nlogn) with Dijkstra’s, something every Computer Science student learns in college.

deedydas's tweet image. Huge computer science result:

A Tsinghua professor JUST discovered the fastest shortest path algorithm for graphs in 40yrs.

This improves on Turing award winner Tarjan’s O(m + nlogn) with Dijkstra’s, something every Computer Science student learns in college.

OSGbyte reposted

Prediction markets leak ≈ $40 M/yr in arbitrage Here’s the data 👇 s/o @OSGbyte

Prithvir12's tweet image. Prediction markets leak ≈ $40 M/yr in arbitrage

Here’s the data 👇

s/o @OSGbyte

OSGbyte reposted

“Sentí vergüenza de mi mismo cuando me di cuenta que la vida es una fiesta de máscaras y yo participé con mi rostro verdadero”. Leer a Kafka es romperte un poco en varios pedazos


In 2-3 weeks I will make public our new paper about different strategies to extract value in Prediction Markets :) These strategies can be applied to any Prediction Market with same structure as Polymarket!


control over our own emotions and thinking in long term is such an underrated skill idk why


Viral Market Fit > Product Market Fit, interesting thesis from @im_roy_lee . Higher speed in the execution for testing the interest of users in some "X" product before building it youtube.com/watch?v=BR1-Jr…

OSGbyte's tweet card. Building Cluely: The Viral AI Startup that raised $15M in 10 Weeks w/...

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Building Cluely: The Viral AI Startup that raised $15M in 10 Weeks w/...


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