Polyshadow
@PolyshadowFun
Shadow the market. Sharpen your instincts. Zero risk.
🎯 Practice prediction markets. Zero risk. Polyshadow lets you sharpen your forecasting skills without risking real money. Make predictions on real markets, track your accuracy, and compete on leaderboards. Start practicing 👇 polyshadow.fun/blog/welcome-t…
Biden's pardon of Hunter just shifted the 2028 Dem primary odds. I'd bet Newsom's chances dropped 5-10 points while Whitmer's rose. The "Biden baggage" narrative writes itself. My rough odds: Whitmer 25%, Shapiro 20%, Newsom 15%. Sometimes family loyalty costs more than you ...
The Spurs have a 61% chance to win their division according to prediction markets, but is that too optimistic for a team that missed the playoffs for 6 straight years? Their 3-0 record against the defending champs suggests otherwise polyshadow.fun/blog/spurs-202…
Launching a YouTube channel to share business stories, lessons I've learned, and important topics I’m actively exploring… youtu.be/0-LAT4HjWPo
youtube.com
YouTube
30 Years of Business Advice in 13 Minutes (from a Billionaire)
MOUZ vs PARIVISION semifinal at PGL Cluj-Napoca has some spicy odds brewing. Markets have MOUZ at 62.5% but CS2 upsets hit different when there's $625k on the line. One bad anti-eco round and those percentages mean nothing polyshadow.fun/blog/cs2-upset…
People systematically overestimate the probability of vivid, memorable events (plane crashes, shark attacks) while underestimating boring statistical risks (heart disease, car accidents). Our brains weren't built for numbers — they're wired for stories.
When a 28-year-old Olympic champ with 11 WTA titles faces a surging 20-something on a 5-match win streak, the betting markets get spicy. Bencic vs Bejlek in Dubai isn't just tennis—it's a masterclass in weighing veteran reliability against red-hot... polyshadow.fun/blog/bencic-vs…
Luka's dropped 73 points in a game and still hasn't won a scoring title. Markets are giving him 57% odds to finally break through in 2025-26, but the competition is brutal and his injury history is concerning. Is this finally his year? polyshadow.fun/blog/luka-donc…
Been playing around on polyshadow.fun lately and honestly it's perfect for testing out prediction strategies without any real money stress. Nice way to see if your gut instincts actually work or if you're just lucky sometimes
Teyana Taylor went from music superstar to Oscar nominee in one leap—and prediction markets have her at nearly 50/50 odds to win Best Supporting Actress. But can a first-timer beat the Academy's love affair with veteran actors? polyshadow.fun/blog/teyana-ta…
The "even more powerful" line feels like pure theater. Markets are already pricing in the uncertainty of what he'll try next since the normal channels just got blocked.
JUST IN: Trump says the Supreme Court's ruling against him has made him even more powerful.
According to @ARKInvest’s research, humanoid robots are 200,000 times more complex than robotaxis to develop. Given Elon’s first principle’s approach and dogged determination, we project that @Tesla’s Optimus will begin to transform factory life, then home life, in 2028/2029.
Elon Musk on why Optimus is so brutally hard to build (hardware side): “The hands are the majority of the engineering difficulty of the entire robot.” Human hands evolved insane sophistication — ~27–28 degrees of freedom, complex tendon web (mostly forearm muscles), crazy
When an 18-year-old tennis phenom faces a seasoned 21-year-old on Dubai's blazing courts, prediction markets get spicy. Jovic was favored at 57.5% despite being younger—her 70% hard court win rate told the whole story. Sometimes momentum beats exp... polyshadow.fun/blog/decoding-…
Roberts writing the majority opinion on this was not on my 2026 bingo card. The refund logistics alone could take years to sort out
Been messing around on polyshadow.fun lately and it's actually pretty neat for testing out prediction strategies without any real money on the line. Good way to see if your gut instincts are worth anything before putting skin in the game.
That 91% "Up" probability seems way too confident for crypto. Either the market knows something I don't or there's about to be a painful reality check
Roberts writing the majority opinion on this is pretty telling. The whole "unlimited presidential authority" angle was always shaky legal ground, even for tariff hawks.
Glen Powell's new A24 thriller has prediction markets split almost 50/50 on whether it'll hit $2.5-3M opening weekend. With tracking estimates all over the map and February's brutal competition, this box office bet is basically a coin flip that re... polyshadow.fun/blog/will-how-…
Glen Powell's new A24 thriller has prediction markets giving it only a 29.5% chance of hitting a very specific $2-2.5M opening weekend box office range. The odds are fascinating when you dig into why forecasters think it'll either bomb or surprise... polyshadow.fun/blog/will-how-…
Your brain treats a 90% chance of rain the same as 70%. Weather apps know this, so they bump predictions up 10-20% because people only remember when forecasts are "wrong." Next time you see 80% rain, the real odds are probably closer to 60%.
A pastor who spent $11 million on a presidential long shot is now betting he can flip that name recognition into a Texas congressional seat. Prediction markets give Ryan Binkley just 27.5% odds in TX-32's GOP primary, but crowded fields can get we... polyshadow.fun/blog/ryan-bink…
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