PredictionAlmanac
@PredictionsBlog
Covering prediction markets and the news moving them.
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Prediction markets are the instrument for yanking millions of brains around the world enabling a transition from competition to cooperation. In this edition, Meet — @AugurProject, @Omen_eth, @PolymarketHQ & @TryPlotX blog.thedapplist.com/web3/predictio…
On poly now, money has moved out of the Trump & Biden bond markets to the Doge markets. Trump Bonds are now paying a 17% APR. I realize this sounds like a pittance to people in crypto, but this is in fact a very good risk-adjusted return. polymarket.com/market/will-do…
polymarket.com
Polymarket
Sports betting requires research, bankroll management, and a solid understanding of the odds. There are a few different odds formats. Which one do you prefer?
We’re beyond thrilled to announce our $30M Series A led by @Sequoia, and to welcome @alfred_lin to our board! Together, we’re unlocking the next step for financial markets: trading on events. wsj.com/articles/onlin…
wsj.com
Online-Trading Platform Will Let Investors Bet on Yes-or-No Questions
An online-trading startup that aims to let people wager on questions about future events ranging from economics to the weather has raised funds from an array of prominent investors.
McAuliffe at 47%, not one of the other 4 has even broken 10%. Yeah, I’d say McAuliffe is still the clear favorite.
New Virginia gov/LG/AG poll coming out tomorrow at 6 am, by the Wason Center. Will post it then at bluevirginia.us - stay tuned!
RIP Walter Mondale at age 93. He deserves to be remembered for far more than a 49-state loss in 1984. Mondale was a first-rate senator, a true partner as VP for Pres. Carter, and the POTUS nominee who broke the gender barrier by picking the 1st woman for VP (Geraldine Ferraro).
ONE MILLION! 🥳 November was a record smashing month with over $1,000,000 in monthly betting volume 📈 Huge thanks to the $DEGENS community ❤️
$100k in 24 hour volume Number one Ethereum gambling application by users Thank you $DEGENS community!
Congratulations to all the contributors and validators for a smooth ETH 2.0 Phase 0 deployment! Onwards and upwards 🚀
No more elections? No problem. Stay warm at home, turn on the TV and refresh your timeline. We bring you a plethora of novel markets to add a little excitement during these final weeks of the year 👀 blog.guesser.com/special-bets-t…
Introducing: ParaAug and AugurETH Start betting with #ETH on Augur 🔥 augur.net/blog/augur-ce/
💲 A moment in history in more ways than one, now a record breaking market for the Betfair Exchange. 🇺🇸 The Presidential Election 2020 market has now surpassed the 200 million mark and with almost a week to go, who knows how high it will go...
⬇️🇺🇸 Monday's #Election2020 Thread 🗳️⬇️ 1⃣ After an extraordinary day's trading, our Swing-O-Meter is now pointing firmly towards Joe Biden. The swing is 2% for the last 24 hours and was 3% at one point yesterday. Check back for latest polls, breaking news and analysis.
Republicans’ goal is to have Judge Barrett confirmed by the full Senate during the last week in October. Prediction markets give that a bullish 87% chance of happening with a forecasted 51 Yea votes. predictit.org/markets/search… #ConeyBarrettHearings #SCOTUS @realDonaldTrump
🔟 The betting has been moving steadily towards Joe Biden since the start of the first #PresidentialDebate but today is arguably the most significant to date. He started at 1.5, shortened to a new low of 1.41 before stabilising at 1.44.
Political markets and @guesser in the @FinancialTimes. Thank you @gilliantett! ft.com/content/87ce4f…
ft.com
Investors grapple with bizarre US election cycle
There is rising interest in using political prediction and betting markets to track political risk
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