Insight_Predict
@insight_predict
Insight Prediction is a new sports & political props prediction exchange (in development), created by academics. http://discord.gg/wbEm8XWwSf
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With the benefit of hindsight, & w/ only 29 athletes infected during the Olympics, it turns out that prediction markets have in fact decisively won this particular battle over the "experts". Who coulda foreseen this? #WisdomofCrowds #Prediction @PTetlock
Interesting battle being waged between journalists and "experts" seeing armageddon at the Olympics and the prediction markets. Who will be right? Only time will tell. @PTetlock
I'm a huge fan of @Polymarket the product. Huge congrats to @shayne_coplan for creating the best prediction market of all time. That said, I haven't always loved all aspects of the UI. Thus, together with legendary trader @aenews_PI, we've built a trading terminal for polymarket…
The criticism of @AllanLichtman's model is basically that it is too subjective—that you can take these keys and then use it to say whatever you want." x.com/i/spaces/1LyGB…
Vivek says that Big Mike will replace Joe $Boden. On Insight Prediction, the odds are up to 2% (meaning you can get a 50:1 betting on yes if Vivek is right). insightprediction.com/m/16502/who-wi…
Small wonder Biden's odds of dropping out are up.
Biden arrives at the D-Day 80th anniversary ceremony clearly confused before shuffling like a robot. He then appears to get confused while trying to take a seat and then freezes. Later on, he leaves the ceremony while Macron stays and greets veterans. There is no way Democrats…
Our Open-AI AGI market is now powered with AI. That is, taking a page from Open AI, we trained a bot to take information from elsewhere, fudged it a bit, and labeled it AI. insightprediction.com/m/280984/will-…
insightprediction.com
Will OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI in 2024?
Will OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI in 2024?
How credible was the "credibility revolution"? How robust is empirical research in economics? We just replicated a year's worth of the American Economic Review & had economists predict robustness. Here's what we learned. econstor.eu/handle/10419/2…
In fact FTR I just used this opportunity to buy some $BIDEN positions on @InsightForecast and Manifold Markets.
In 2021, I said next US election would be Biden vs. Trump. Looks a near certainty now. I will also now say that current polling means very little and $BIDEN is a very obvious long in prediction markets that are now converging to 50/50 between him and #TRUMP.
> Why Anatoly predicts Biden vs. Trump in 2024, with a Biden victory starktruthradio.com/?p=12118 (Oct 2021) Looking good.
New Market: Will Israel Take Khan Younis City Hall by December 15th? Initial odds around 45-47%. Note that Insight is collecting no net fees on this market (taker fees paid to makers). insightprediction.com/m/247060/will-…
Pro tip: You should probably get the air conditioners installed now. 👀
Many will lose their credibility with the extreme warming and weather in the coming months. I hope it's just us and faulty @NASA satellites, but I don't think so. I'm sorry about all people and nature that will die because of this. We could have prepared, but did nothing.
95% chance temperature anomaly will be >1.13 degrees on @InsightForecast. insightprediction.com/m/243607/what-…
Will Andy Beshear Win the 2023 Kentucky Gubernatorial Election? insightprediction.com/m/246655/will-…
Israeli odds of advancing a few more kilometers and taking central Gaza City by the end of the month are still hovering in the low 60s. Bettors seemingly expect it to be tough going. insightprediction.com/m/243617/will-… #IsraelPalestineWar #IsraelPalestineConflict #Zionism #IsraelHamasWar…
Odds of an Israeli-Hamas ceasefire by December 15th at 15-18%. insightprediction.com/m/246543/hamas… @IsraelWarRoom @yopletweets @lamelnamel @Sarah3eth @KenRoth @benshapiro @DavidAsmanfox @SometimesPooh
Odds of Israel taking possession of a central location in Gaza City by the end of the month up over 70%, according to the academic prediction market, Insight Prediction. insightprediction.com/m/243617/will-… @daves_000 @MarioNawfal @jacksonhinklle @RamAbdu @Musaad1l @Fahad_Heaven @Himat75…
Market says that there's a 26% chance someone has a Neuralink chip implanted by April 20. Seems high to me, but Elon Musk has surprised us before. insightprediction.com/m/246371/will-…
insightprediction.com
Will a Human Have a Neuralink Chip Implanted by 4/20/2024?
Will a Human Have a Neuralink Chip Implanted by 4/20/2024?
Will a human have a Neuralink chip implanted by 4/20? Current odds are around 20-26%. insightprediction.com/m/246371/will-… @RichardHanania @elonmusk #Nueralink #Science
Odds now about 60% that Israel will control central Gaza City by December 1st. insightprediction.com/m/243617/will-…
Always be innovating
Ever check a market and not see the price you want, but wish you knew when cheaper orders are on the book for you to buy? Well, we've just added Price Alerts to Insight! You can find them at the top-right of every active market page under the bell icon. (1/4)
Market doesn’t believe Netanyahu is going down anytime soon, he should last at least through the end of 2024. insightprediction.com/m/244230/who-w…
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