Ray Micaletti
@RelSentTech
CIO, Relative Sentiment Technologies | Examining the forces that move markets | Free weekly updates: http://www.relativesentiment.com | Not investment advice
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Lots of talk about 2022 following the trajectory of 2008. Maybe so. But in fall 2008 institutions were bearish equities and bullish the dollar, whereas now they are bullish equities and bearish the dollar. Let's see what happens.
Silver's relationship to $48.50 is pathological
Silver trying $48.50 again
$Silver Hard rejection at $48.50
Silver futures really like the $48.50 level
On the one hand, $IWM $RTY look like dog💩, underperforming $NQ by 4.5% so far this week--reminiscent of the period that started the day after Thanksgiving 2024 ( $QQQ outperformed $IWM by 10 percentage points in Dec '24). Gov't shutdown likely restricting liquidity that small…
$RTY getting a second chance to prove its mettle.
$RTY holding where it had to this morning to stay within its ascending triangle pattern.
The gold/silver ratio falling back into its falling wedge. If it holds, that suggests silver will outperform, which in turn suggests precious metals could move higher near-term.
The falling wedge in the gold/silver ended up playing out bullishly for the ratio (bearishly for silver).
$RTY holding where it had to this morning to stay within its ascending triangle pattern.
$48.50 on Dec silver futures still a problem.
Second time is not the charm for $RTY.
$RTY making a second attempt to get back into the previous price channel.
$RTY making a second attempt to get back into the previous price channel.
$RTY is on fire, but it would be somewhat shocking if it broke back into this channel on the first try.
$GDX looking like it will backtest its former all-time high around 67 (blue line; currently 69.86 premarket down from an all-time high of ~86 last Thursday).
Gold-silver ratio backtesting the breakout.
The falling wedge in the gold/silver ended up playing out bullishly for the ratio (bearishly for silver).
The 48.50 in Dec silver futures getting tested again
A near-backtest of the 48.50 level on Dec silver futures before bouncing. Precious metals relative sentiment remains in a near-ideal bullish condition for silver. x.com/RelSentTech/st…
The falling wedge in the gold/silver ended up playing out bullishly for the ratio (bearishly for silver).
The gold/silver ratio should be a bit concerning for silver bulls. It's near the bottom of a falling wedge and at the lower trendline of a multi-year rising channel. Positioning is quite bullish for silver currently, but this technical setup might lead to a rug-pull before $50.
Gold/silver ratio threatening to break higher out of its falling wedge. Let's see if it's a head fake and the ratio falls deeper into the wedge with silver outperforming from here.
Despite how well silver has done, it hasn't gained any ground on gold since September 24th. Falling wedge not auspicious for silver outperformance (unless it ultimately falls deeper into the wedge).
Despite how well silver has done, it hasn't gained any ground on gold since September 24th. Falling wedge not auspicious for silver outperformance (unless it ultimately falls deeper into the wedge).
Gold/silver ratio remains in falling wedge pattern-- suggests gold may outperform silver near-term.
$RTY is on fire, but it would be somewhat shocking if it broke back into this channel on the first try.
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