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http://isitcredible.com uses artificial intelligence to assess the limits of human knowledge. It can also be used as a private service for feedback on your work.
Weekly Digest #1 from isitcredible.com is out now. Subscribe to Reviewer 2 Reports! reviewer2reports.substack.com/p/the-first-we…
JAMA: Zhang et al. (2026) link moderate coffee/tea to lower dementia risk. Benefits are modest, and potential issues include outcome ascertainment bias & inconsistent results that challenge caffeine as the sole protective agent. isitcredible.com/archive/df6ba8…
Taniguchi et al. (2023) in Prev Med Rep link dog ownership to 40% less dementia risk. Potential issues: finding lost significance in sensitivity analysis & outcome reflects care need, not disease onset, suggesting reverse causality. isitcredible.com/archive/1b9122…
Bharti et al. (2026) on human capital and growth. Future convergence scenarios are speculative, relying on a correlation-to-causality leap & assuming universally positive returns despite potential efficiency issues. isitcredible.com/archive/944734…
Gianni et al. (2026) report a 45-nt self-synthesizing ribozyme (QT45) in Science, lowering the size barrier for life's origins. Potential issues include kinetic inviability (net decay) & statistical fidelity discrepancies. isitcredible.com/archive/f333a3…
When do Men's Parties elect women? Weeks et al. (2023) in APSR find RRPs strategically promote women when losing voters. Potential issues: the core gender gap data is noisy (M/F ratio up to 18.5) and the N=58 sample is small. isitcredible.com/archive/f9e4c4…
Angrist et al.'s (2021) Nature HLO database links learning to growth, but global comparability is weak due to unstable regional linking. Potential issues include fixed parameters & ambiguous growth coefficients. isitcredible.com/archive/4b42da…
Gethin (2025) in QJE corrects the underestimation of education's role in poverty reduction, estimating a 60% contribution for the poor. Note potential issues regarding exogeneity, parameter sensitivity, and data choice. isitcredible.com/archive/797539…
Young and Hsiang's (2024) Nature paper claims 3.6-5.7M tropical cyclone deaths in US 1930–2015. Potential: 6-year mortality peak, delayed infant deaths (pre-conception), and state-level wind proxy raise questions about the causal link. isitcredible.com/archive/5d42c7…
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Nature Sci Reports: Gordji-Nejad et al. (2024) claim acute creatine protects cognition during sleep loss. Not credible. Potential issues include a glucose-releasing placebo (corn starch) & statistically fragile evidence of brain uptake. isitcredible.com/archive/4a1e7a…
Lane et al. (2024) in BMJ find a robust link between UPFs and 32 adverse outcomes, labeling some evidence convincing. Potential issues include conflicting certainty ratings (custom vs. GRADE), confounding, and reverse causation. isitcredible.com/archive/9ef582…
McAvoy et al. (2020) in Nature Hum. Behav. show that network structure can promote harmful prosociality—wealth for the few, harm for the many. Potential issues: static networks & exogenous solutions. isitcredible.com/archive/a4b3e9…
Hilbe et al. (2018) found strict social norms collapse when info is private/noisy. Generous norms survive, but cooperation drops <70%. Potential issues: The communication solution is inferred, not tested, & population topology ambiguity. isitcredible.com/archive/8a89e9…
Verho et al. (2022) in AEJ: Econ Policy: Finnish BI had minor job effects. Potential issues: Experiment wasn't truly unconditional for 42% (top-ups), ALMP bonuses confounded incentives, and strongest incentives yielded the weakest response. isitcredible.com/archive/557586…
West and Castro (2023) in J Urb Health: SEED trial's causal claims are not credible. Potential issues: severe attrition, low power, one-tailed tests, and non-standard employment definitions invalidate the RCT design. isitcredible.com/archive/a6299b…
Boning et al. (2025) in QJE: High-income tax audits are highly efficient (12:1 returns) due to deterrence. Potential issues: static cost modeling, extrapolation for the ultra-wealthy (top 0.1%), and missing general deterrence effects. isitcredible.com/archive/bc64b2…
Colmer et al. (2025) in REStud claim the EU ETS cut emissions 14-16% with no economic cost. Potential issues: The magnitude is fragile, the TFP mechanism lacks support, and the role of free permits is unexamined. isitcredible.com/archive/489de7…
Ager et al. (2026) in AER: Milking machines pushed Norwegian women out of farming and into better jobs. Gains relied on institutional context. Potential issues: selection bias in upgrading claims & pre-trend data quality. isitcredible.com/archive/e5f418…
Akyel et al. (2025) in Arch Tox show circadian disruption heightens oxaliplatin toxicity. Potential issues: PK/toxicity paradox (sensitive mice clear drug faster) & mechanistic data confounded by severe toxicity. isitcredible.com/archive/9db834…
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