Rob MacArthur
@RobMacArthur5
Doing investment research since 1994. Love fraud/investigative research. Contrarian and skeptic.
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See the problem? We’re inside the bubble, or bubbles. If one goes the others may go too. It’s not an affordability problem. It’s a gap between buyers and sellers bridged by developers. @UnicusResearch
Wondering what 2007 looked like? Now add to that more than double the consumer credit now, not including mortgages. Cockroaches are coming @UnicusResearch
Just gonna leave this here. It’s painful to watch, sad for sure. x.com/libsoftiktok/s… The Post Office implemented a policy banning the loading of contractors using drivers with non-domiciled CDLs. USPS reversed the ban due to widespread disruptions. $saia $odfl $sndr $knx
A near-naked California trucker, who doesn't speak English, was confronted by Arkansas police and TESTED on his ability to read BASIC traffic signs. He FAILED. Gavin Newsom is responsible for this.
A near-naked California trucker, who doesn't speak English, was confronted by Arkansas police and TESTED on his ability to read BASIC traffic signs. He FAILED. Gavin Newsom is responsible for this.
$ABG reports tomorrow. Looking for slow top line organic growth offset partially by acquisitions. $AN fell on their eps last week on lower gpu’s. $CVNA is Wednesday. Time to sell the 300/500 straddle given the volatility it can make money in both directions. Vol evaporates
Given the viability coming from the trucking industry’s conference calls, there’s room to fall. $KNX was downbeat. A shortage of drivers is just the start.
$WFC doubled their auto loan originations to consumers, they have a lot of exposure to subprime lenders and dealers going bankrupt or at risk in the next 12 months.
Lennar is showing you what has to happen in the housing market to drive sales. They've cut prices 22%. And are now below pre-pandemic pricing. The result? Sales orders have spiked. Lennar's margins have compressed to 17.5% as a result of the price cuts. But that's just how it…
First Brands Group™ is a global automotive parts company. Filed for bankruptcy Sept. 2025 along with 98 affiliated U.S. entities. Smells like Enron. The collapse is "dragging down" dozens of financial firms through massive exposures to its debt, factoring arrangements, and…
This is a huge story - rehypothecated off balance sheet debt leading to huge bankruptcy - and nobody cares because daily AI circle jerk zerohedge.com/markets/credit…
Tricolor Trustee, Chuck Gibbs, “When we finally got inside, we found a completely vacant floor that resembled an abandoned DMV office … that had over 5,000 car titles in various stages of completion...and at least that many sets of license plates..." [AFN] @UnicusResearch
$STLA up strongly today on sales growth/ easy comp. OEMs are providing floor plan financing for the dealers and writing loans through their subprime bank. That’s a bad combo. If the OEM has an inventory problem, lenient financing creates more sales that default later.
ionanalytics.com/insights/debtw… Brands factoring agreements a USD 2bn variable at play in potential Chapter 11 filing – Legal Analysis
IT IS SO CUTE when the Car Dealership Dude starts echoing what we have been saying to our clients for the past few months... The mainstream media, rating agencies, and others are always the last to "catch up" on reality. It echoes how we have been ahead of the curve for our…
We measured the growth of consumer credit by type from the peak of the pandemic to 2Q25. What we found is consumer debt increased from 14 trillion to 18 about 28%. However, credit card debt is up 50%. Consumers are financing inflation. Unsustainable. $SYF $WFC @UnicusResearch
We continue to look for triggers that collapse the car mkt. Auto repair is up 50%. People have more longer-term loans and have a very high chance of owning a dying car before the loan is paid off. A 6 yr loan on a 10 yr old car hides defaults caused by higher maintenance. $GPC
🚨BREAKING: Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (Russian occupied) has been disconnected from the grid for over 4 days. The plant has been operating on emergency generators as nuclear experts warn of a possible meltdown if the fuel is unable to be cooled properly.
Sometimes people ask what a good short looks like. You’re never going to call a top. In fact there could’ve several swings. $SEDG $ENPH are more recent, the pattern is the same. What are current examples @UnicusResearch ??
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