Rob MacArthur
@RobMacArthur5
Doing investment research since 1994. Love fraud/investigative research. Contrarian and skeptic.
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Tricolor Trustee, Chuck Gibbs, “When we finally got inside, we found a completely vacant floor that resembled an abandoned DMV office … that had over 5,000 car titles in various stages of completion...and at least that many sets of license plates..." [AFN] @UnicusResearch
$STLA up strongly today on sales growth/ easy comp. OEMs are providing floor plan financing for the dealers and writing loans through their subprime bank. That’s a bad combo. If the OEM has an inventory problem, lenient financing creates more sales that default later.
ionanalytics.com/insights/debtw… Brands factoring agreements a USD 2bn variable at play in potential Chapter 11 filing – Legal Analysis
IT IS SO CUTE when the Car Dealership Dude starts echoing what we have been saying to our clients for the past few months... The mainstream media, rating agencies, and others are always the last to "catch up" on reality. It echoes how we have been ahead of the curve for our…
We measured the growth of consumer credit by type from the peak of the pandemic to 2Q25. What we found is consumer debt increased from 14 trillion to 18 about 28%. However, credit card debt is up 50%. Consumers are financing inflation. Unsustainable. $SYF $WFC @UnicusResearch
We continue to look for triggers that collapse the car mkt. Auto repair is up 50%. People have more longer-term loans and have a very high chance of owning a dying car before the loan is paid off. A 6 yr loan on a 10 yr old car hides defaults caused by higher maintenance. $GPC
🚨BREAKING: Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (Russian occupied) has been disconnected from the grid for over 4 days. The plant has been operating on emergency generators as nuclear experts warn of a possible meltdown if the fuel is unable to be cooled properly.
Sometimes people ask what a good short looks like. You’re never going to call a top. In fact there could’ve several swings. $SEDG $ENPH are more recent, the pattern is the same. What are current examples @UnicusResearch ??
It has begun. Consumer credit and auto sector is the canary in the coal mine. We have been warning about this to anyone who could listen. Stay tuned.
#Autos #Bosch More distressed @UnicusResearch Layoffs @thejobchick finance.yahoo.com/news/bosch-cut…
How many consumers are going join the pool of subprime because of inflation? Watch CNBC at 5:30 to find out from @UnicusResearch CEO at 5:30 today.
The U.S. Latino GDP reached a record high of $4.1 trillion in 2023, making it larger than the economies of India, the UK, and France, and ranking it as the fifth-largest global economy if it were a standalone country. Feels recessionary at best. @UnicusResearch
BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Banks U.S. Banks are now sitting on $395 Billion in unrealized losses as of Q2 2025 👀
Looking at Fed data, we can track the growth of consumer debt. From 1q20 to 2Q25 consumer debt rose by 4 trillion to 18.4. The government injected over 4 trillion at the same time. Credit card debt grew the fastest at 50%. Trouble. $syf $v $ma could be vulnerable
It’s interesting to see $AFRM have such a strong quarter. It seems counter cyclical not cyclical. Their delinquencies were down, not up. Maybe the economy isn’t that bad, maybe people are using AFRM to reduce delinquency.
Born in debt and die in debt. Personal bankruptcies increased significantly in 2025 to 11.8% compared to 2024. We expect this trend to continue as layoffs and student debt pressure consumers. Bankruptcy is the story of every American.
Historical cost of Buying v Renting. This explains everything about the current housing market.
Florida residential delistings are up in Miami where ~60 properties were delisted per 100 new one; twice the ~21% national average. Delisting rates across its markets: roughly ~60% FL, ~48% HI, ~47% TX. @UnicusResearch real estate showing signs of problems. A rate cut won't help
Catching up. Good for truckers $ODFL $SAIA? West Coast ports, especially Los Angeles, hit record import levels in July 2025 (and June). LA handled 543,000 TEUs of imports +8% YoY)and nearly 6 million TEUs YTD (+5% vs 2024). • China July imports from China rose to 923,000 TEUs
This week we are getting eps reports from $HOV, $LOW and others. The housing group has rallied anticipating lower rates, while reality is much worse, creating entries. How much unsold inventory do they have?
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