Notes of a Stock Operator
@StockNotesToday
A professional investor's public notes to self. Please tell me when I am wrong.
$HACK #IPO #Shortselling Hacksaw AB IPOed in Sweden Rev CAGR last 3y >100%, EBIT margins >80% -> time to cash out (for early investors) on a great run Business: Online gambling slot game creator aka B2B #iGaming content supplier. Launching 5 new games every month. However, most…
#morningNoSO 🇨🇳 $DADA (negative EV): $JD offers $2 🇺🇸 #AI capex discussion: #SAAS up #SEMIs down -> $META $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN profits up? 🛢️ #OOTT 1) prod up -> good for tankers $STNG $INSW 2) prod not up -> price up -> good for tankers 🇬🇧 $BATS no menthol ban, broker upgrade
#morningNoSO 🇯🇵 rates up! 🇩🇰 $NVO reports successful clinical trial 🇬🇧 $BRBY > expectations. Luxury up $KER $MC 🇨🇳 no tariffs. Yet. 🇺🇸 Earnings $AXP $TXN $VZ $ISRG $FCX ok. $TWLO 🚀 🥇 #gold new ATH 🇧🇷 #OOTT $VTURA #Foresea merger rumors 🇳🇴 #OOTT $ARGEO likely getting $PBR tender
#24SevenOffice Group OM:247 renamed into Done.AI Sold assets to $KKR Stock price 19.90 SEK. Will pay 16.65 SEK in dividends New CEO, new CFO, both buying shares Holding company for a bunch of software businesses.
done.ai
Done.ai | Smart AI Solutions to Automate Your Workflows
Discover Done.ai – one connected, AI-powered platform to run your entire business — faster, smarter, and with full control.
$UNH $520, intrinsic value ~ $800 Negative sentiment towards health insurers & Margins down Medium term: Expanding margins, durable high-single digit growth, growing market share. Superior cost efficiency Best-in-industry. Hated. Suppressed price.
$UNH $575, intrinsic value ~$700 ST issues: MA rate mismatch not resolving before 2026 Lower growth in value-based care -> OptumHealth IRA elimination of co-insurance -> more high-cost meds Valuing 7% rev growth & slight margin increase (<< LT guidance of 13-16% EPS growth)
$NFLX $960, intrinsic value ~ $725 Behemoth in competitive growth industry: Linear TV -> Online. 10% penetration. Durable double-digit rev CAGR. Margins up. User growth. Pricing-power. Global reach. Undermonetized (ads). $8bn FCF in 2025 -> 52x EV/FCF. Great asset. High price.
#monrningNoSO 🇹🇼 $TSM Big Capex guide up -> $AMAT $ASML $ASMI $LRCX $BESI #CPO not coming this year. 5y rev CAGR 20%. $NVDA says 5y #AI CAGR 40% 🇺🇸 $UNH earnings ok 🇨🇭#Richemont earnings -> $MC $KER luxury up 🇨🇦 $PAAS earnings. #silver prod beat 🇦🇺 $RIO #bauxite beat ->…
$STNE $10.60, intrinsic value ~$12 Cons: 🇧🇷rates up -> margin pressure. Buyback completed. Lost ccard ma share in Q3. Pros: Will sell software segment New buyback prog next y. #Clients CAGR still >20%. Take rate increasing. Plenty FCF PIX, credit, banking -> all ++ for $STNE
$STNE $15, intrinsic value ~ $13 Value very sensitive to #Brazil interest rates (margins, FX, cost of capital -> same direction) Keeps taking share: stunning customer growth (32% 1y, 150% CAGR 5y) Restarted lending. Hugely important product. Success unclear. High potential.
$DDOG $125, intrinsic value ~ $85 Strong moat. 20%++ rev CAGR. Margin expansion. #AI wave -> #LLM observability CPU -> GPU. GPU higher costs, under-monetized. Hiring R&D & Sales -> scale heads with top line Market does not like nextQ guidance. Meaningless. -> price pls drop!
$DDOG brilliant platform. security is call option ITOM market CAGR 10% (DDOG 10% share) Cloud services CAGR 20% avg client: $DDOG is 1% of client cloud bill-> full suite client: 5-15% -> CEO: just core obs to grow 5x-10x easy 5x in 5y requires 38% CAGR, consensus is high-20s%
$MED $20.40 228 ma cap, 170m "cash", 18m leases, -11m WC -> EV ~ 90m, Est. FCF2024 ~ 20m $MED will keep "wasting" money, but probably less quickly than feared. Going after #GLP1 population -> new products, new channels... will it work?? -> if yes: 💰💰💰, if no: still 0⃣
$MED -10% on analyst report 👇 Wasting money too little too slow! Should waste 50% sales not 5%, should start spending in June, not July. 😀 My opinion: $MED throwing all cash away on mere hopes of turn around -> Likely 0️⃣, but potential multi-💰
$BRK $440, intrinsic value $525 Better than Mag7: Low cost-of-capital, longer runway $BRK >> S&P500 -> cash pile offers downside protection -> #oil & real assets offer inflation protection -> $BRK FCF CAGR likely > S&P in any macro scenario -> $BRK management > avg S&P
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