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Largest business cycle bull div yet. Reversal = Parabolic market
Bitcoin chillin over 100k and most couldn’t give a f*ck. Pretty surreal if you’ve been here awhile.
Business cycle wise, and macro structure wise (not just BTC), the most recent point of similar market positioning was October 2020. Then: BTC 10k, ETH 300 Now: BTC 100k, ETH 3k Both: Sentiment terrible Poetry.
The longest runway continues. Takeoff has yet to begin. But it's close.
Let's make sense of it all. Recalibration: The Trunk Up Thesis techdev52.com/p/techdev-news…
It's a longer ramp. The business cycle framework explains why.
Let's make sense of it all. Recalibration: The Trunk Up Thesis techdev52.substack.com/p/techdev-news…
The highly-levered do not get to ride the bucking bull. It's that simple.
Never been a 4 year Bitcoin cycle. Never been the halving. Always been the business cycle…that previously inflected every 4ish years right near the halving. How do you know? Because it’s also explained every other aspect of Bitcoin’s chart. It’s at a bottom, not a top.
Oct 2020 - ETH tested top of 2 yr range. - Business cycle inflected - Global risk index turned positive Oct 2025 - ETH tested top of 2 yr range. - Business cycle inflected - Global risk index turned positive
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