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It's a longer ramp. The business cycle framework explains why.
The highly-levered do not get to ride the bucking bull. It's that simple.
Oct 2020 - ETH tested top of 2 yr range. - Business cycle inflected - Global risk index turned positive Oct 2025 - ETH tested top of 2 yr range. - Business cycle inflected - Global risk index turned positive
Never been a 4 year Bitcoin cycle. Never been the halving. Always been the business cycle…that previously inflected every 4ish years right near the halving. How do you know? Because it’s also explained every other aspect of Bitcoin’s chart. It’s at a bottom, not a top.
This is why most alts topped May 2021 and why Nov 2021 was a corrective BTC high. The risk cycle drives crypto’s.
If someone calls for an end-of-year top, your question should be “which year?” Why do you see some saying it’s early risk cycle? Because it’s early risk cycle.
The Global Risk Index: A Framework for Cycle Precision techdev52.substack.com/p/techdev-news…
Altcoins: slower but bigger They didn’t believe it then, they don’t believe it now.
Phases of the global business cycle… Dictate those of the Bitcoin cycle.
Bitcoin has never had its hockey stick inflection until this global risk index crossed positive, like it just did.
Two Paths Forward: Navigating the Business Cycle Inflection techdev52.com/p/techdev-news…
It's... The 2012 setup before the 2013 run. The 2016 setup before the 2017 run. The 2020 setup before the 2021 run. All over again.
🔴 Top = Business cycle (BC) peaks, so BTC peaks 🟣 Bear market = BC and BTC fall together 🟢 Bull market ramp = BC keeps falling while BTC grinds up 🔴 Bull market parabola = BC reverses, so BC and BTC rise together Where are we now?
The Global Risk Index is a ratio of 3 simple macro signals. No weights, no fitting parameters. 3 signals independent of Bitcoin, larger than Bitcoin, that explain Bitcoin’s cycles. Discussed in latest issue, covered in more detail next week: techdev52.com/p/techdev-news…
Most seem to have no idea what's coming. Macro altcoin expansion has only just begun.
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