TechStockFundamentals
@TechFundies
Tech investor for ~25 years. Ran large hedge fund for 10 of those. Here to help. Not investment advice.
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I think there are basically 2 prevailing strategies in the market. 1) Earnings revisions Only two questions matter near-term: Is the story getting better or worse, and are numbers going up or down? That's it. For momentum names, in either direction, that's all that matters…
Interesting insights from $PLTR former. Certainly seems like they are onto something as far as go-to-market fit. Highlights -Joined PLTR to help get commercial strategy working -Companies were reluctant to work w/ PLTR – worked w/ ICE, etc. -Figured out should go pitch…
I think everyone is a bit off base with these net new ARR acceleration hopes ($CRM, $HUBS, etc.) Here is a simple example where a subscription business landing the same new ARR each quarter is growing 18% yy. Then, new ARR bumps up to 25% yy growth. Sub revenue takes 3…
$HUBS reported a fine quarter but below expectations of an acceleration. Story is moving sideways. Decent SaaS product cycle story but AI impact unclear. Also unclear if this is a great business. Numbers likely move higher but also seems unlikely company is able to…
Three third-party WDAY partner checks were constructive. Leading platform for HCM / FINS, Extend allows customers to customize solution which opens up deployment use cases, AI still early but a call option. Up-market getting more penetrated but mid-market / government has…
In defense of Sam: 1) He is focused on the big picture and transformational tech. This dude started with a lab that was working on pretty experimental stuff and has shot the lights out thus far. 2) He has the world's biggest plate - managing an AI talent pool that is…
Interesting AI data point from my exceptional NYC doctor (highly recommend for family medicine), who also writes a great blog (link below) For the first time, New England Journal Of Medicine published its weekly case review with an AI perspective as well. They pitted a master…
My $AMZN estimates moved up. Remains an attractive revision / risk-reward setup. Have to say, $GOOGL Gemini Pro in Chrome is turning into a must-have backup to my own analysis.
$NOW reported a solid qtr. Story is solid as they remain the operational workflow workhorse for enterprise, and are layering in AI functionality. Numbers have some room to move higher. Risk / reward is ok. High margin, high-retention subscription business that ought to decel…
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