TechStockFundamentals
@TechFundies
Tech investor for ~25 years. Ran large hedge fund for 10 of those. Here to help. Not investment advice.
Third-party contact is a longtime mid-tier partner of $TEAM that sees 8 figures a year. Punchlines are TEAM product suite is great, seat counts not growing much within install base but bundling helps upsell products to customers, AI Rovo is good product that works better if you…
People definitely not giving AI agents the same level of respect as a human. This will only be funny to anyone who has done tons of expert interviews at some point.
Open.AI dev day kind of interesting. So all companies have a website and many have an app - both of which allow for deep control of the user experience. Is the choice 1) lose traffic to AI engines but build AI functionality within your site (smarter home…
A funny aspect of $MSFT: Open.AI stake (or whatever it is) maybe worth 100-200b (wide range)? MSFT share of losses might be 5b this FY and 8b next FY? Expenses carry multiples too. So 35x these losses are 175-280b hit. Cleaning all…
My experiences with $APP (I think). 1) My son asks me to download different free-to-play games for his iPad time. (I've told him I don't like him playing junky games with lots of ads and would rather buy him higher-quality experiences.) I watch him play…
Bullet points from $ACN Q4 call. Good trends in AI bookings / revenue though also spoke to "value realization being underwhelming for many". Highlights -Gen AI rev tripled to 2.7b (implies 900m of rev up from 700m in Q3, 600m in Q2, 500m in Q1) -GenAI bookings doubled to 5.9b…
$WDAY analyst day was fine. Punchline is they put out revenue growth guidance they can beat, reasonable margin targets that show continued discipline including on stock comp, and a buyback that will cause sharecount to decline 1% / year. AI applications are early here but they…
Random math on the big $ORCL bookings figure (Don’t expect to learn anything): The size of the order(s) is pretty wild, may mostly be from Open.AI, and carries unknown risk (funding, escape clauses, pricing, etc.). 1) ORCL Revenue Ramp Seems like some large…
Watched the US Open on Hulu / ESPN. Family was laughing bc nearly every ad was the same spot from Cadillac or Dubai tourism. No joke was nearly 60% of the ad load for hours of watch time. That makes 0 sense. We are logged-in so they know exactly who we are, and this is the…
$CRM reported an inline qtr. Story is moving sideways – base business chugging along with higher profitability but AI product cycle not yet in gear. Numbers also moving sideways. Street doesn’t have INFA in FCF yet so room for estimates here to move higher. Risk / reward…
$GOOGL sigh of relief on ruling. Bumping target multiples up to 18x GAAP EPS for downside and 25x for upside. Maybe could go higher than 25x for mid teens operating income growth mitigated by the focus returning to secular concerns about AI search. Maybe the nearer-term impact…
British construction firm was mixed on $PCOR. Highlights -Switching is really tough bc get used to using one vendor and have layered projects into the horizon so would have to also have period where using two different solutions -PCOR was great bc was more open w/ APIs to make…
$SNOW reported a strong beat / raise. Story continues to get better (core accelerating and AI platform coming together) while numbers move higher. Stock reflects all this and pretty full up here. Upside of -9% on 11x CY2027 revs / 40x FCF (ex-SBC). My numbers largely assume Q2…
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