Kevin S. Xu
@kevinsxu
Building/Investing @ Interconnected Capital; Writing @interconnect_ed; ex. GitHub, Obama White House/Commerce Dept; no one's quant
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2023: 170.13% 2024: 66.71% 2023-2024 average annual return: 112.21% 28 more years to go to reach my inner scorecard of 30+% return per year for 30 years More in my annual letter 👇
NEW POST: 2024 Annual Letter: Generational Company, Generational Wealth buff.ly/40Y0gW5 by @kevinsxu
I can't help but read this section as a subtle plea for the Chinese govt to let in some NVDA GPUs. Agree/Disagree?
enough preamble. The most important part in every Whale paper, as I've said so many times over these years, is “Conclusion, Limitation, and Future Work”. They say: Frontier has no knowledge advantage. Compute is the only serious differentiator left. Time to get more GPUs.
💯
US media tends to cover robotaxis as a Waymo/Tesla race, but globally Waymo's strongest competition is likely to be Chinese companies like Baidu, WeRide, and Pony. Rough robotaxi counts today: Waymo: 2,500 Baidu: 1,000 Pony: 960 WeRide: 750 Tesla: 100
🛠 Open Source Release 📦 DeepSeek-V3.2 Model: huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/De… 📦 DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale Model: huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/De… 📄 Tech report: huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/De… 5/n
I don't want this critique/observation to come across as too personal or against any specific writer Big opinion-having newsletters are a symptom, less a cause, of the issue. I often lazily chalk this up to: don't hate the player, hate the game. That conveniently absolves all…
Anyone writing a newsletter that got to 10k subscribers instinctively knows what hot takes his/her audience wants to hear, regardless of how dumb, inaccurate, even toxic those takes are For a writer, especially the opinion-haver kind, the choice is: if I learned something new…
I like "co-opetition" as the catch-all for three reasons: 1. Competition: it is fierce, both between American and Chinese labs, and among themselves! The cutthroat rivalries between OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind, and xAI are mirrored, if not more intense, between Alibaba,…
Co-opetition, not “race”, is how I plan to write about all things AI between the US and China going forward. More elaboration in my new post:
Anyone writing a newsletter that got to 10k subscribers instinctively knows what hot takes his/her audience wants to hear, regardless of how dumb, inaccurate, even toxic those takes are For a writer, especially the opinion-haver kind, the choice is: if I learned something new…
When your livelihood (and relevance) depends on writing a paid newsletter as a professional-opinion-haver, being confidently wrong and never changing your mind is how you monetize Paid subs is the only KPI. Monetizing others' ignorance and faulty priors is the game
When your livelihood (and relevance) depends on writing a paid newsletter as a professional-opinion-haver, being confidently wrong and never changing your mind is how you monetize Paid subs is the only KPI. Monetizing others' ignorance and faulty priors is the game
He is loud so confidently, even aggressively, for big things and small both. It's uncanny. I can't fathom being willing to offer such shallow analysis to such a large audience with such certainty. I'm not built like that! My credibility has value to me. How does he do it?
From Liang Meng-Song (defected first to Samsung, then/now at SMIC) to Lo Wei-Jen (Intel), TSMC has been down this road before... reuters.com/legal/litigati…
As far as I know, there isn't any chatbot or API that gives you access to an IMO 2025 gold-medalist model. Not only does this change today, but you get to download the weights with the Apache 2.0 open-source release of @deepseek_ai Math-V2 on @huggingface! Imagine owning the…
Google TPU v6e vs AMD MI300X vs NVIDIA H100/B200: Artificial Analysis’ Hardware Benchmarking shows NVIDIA achieving a ~5x tokens-per-dollar advantage over TPU v6e (Trillium), and a ~2x advantage over MI300X, in our key inference cost metric In our metric for inference cost…
The Middle East is surely becoming the epicenter of self-driving and robotaxi -- the future of urban transportation Mr Market seems to be sleeping on two things: 1. Uber's global robotaxi ambition; 2. WeRide, a tiny (~2-3B market cap) company, that is the tech backbone of this…
The future is arriving today! In partnership with @WeRide_ai, we’ve launched the Middle East’s first-ever fully driverless robotaxi commercial operations — starting today in Abu Dhabi.
Nice launch by another Nebius customer!
FLUX.2 is here - our most capable image generation & editing model to date. Multi-reference. 4MP. Production-ready. Open weights. Into the new.
China speed! 😂
I asked (on ChinaTalk) the head of product at Z ai, one of the leading Chinese companies building open models, how long it takes them to get their model out the door once its done training. Incredible stuff: "a few hours" and the model is on HuggingFace.
Chinese tech companies have been "stealing" western open source (Linux, Android, MySQL/Postgres) to reduce dependency and improve profitability American AI companies are now "stealing" Chinese open source (DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi) to reduce dependency and improve profitability…
This is a must read. Thoughtful and sobering
Today, I write about US-China competition in AI and associated technologies as I see it. “Race” is a fairly poor analogy, in my view, for understanding the magnitude of what is underway.
WeRide was at Abu Dhabi Autonomous Week! 🇦🇪 Founder and CEO Tony Han showcased our AVs to His Highness Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan & spoke on a panel on how Abu Dhabi’s supportive ecosystem, led by regulators like @ad_mobility, makes it a global AV hub. $WRD
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