Luke Dupont
@lukesdupont
Software Engineer, Value Investor, Writer. Student of History and Lover of Wisdom. Living and Working in Japan. Author of The Anomaly Report.
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50 year mortgages will have the same impact on home prices that unlimited federally backed student loans had on college tuition.
I'll preface this by saying that I do like picking and choosing companies in the commodity space. However, this chart may be misleading if you consider that a large amount of companies in the space have destroyed a lot of capital and generally suffered low ROI / high capex.
When I hear classic contrarian sayings like: ”buy low, sell high” ”be a contrarian” ”buy when there is blood in the streets” ”be greedy when others are fearful” Then I think about this commodities vs general equities chart. Commodities are extremely undervalued vs the…
And yet policy is... to further inflate not just home, but car prices too? Regardless of who's in office, Government policy always appears to be "Just inflate more debt bubbles. Anywhere. Everywhere." Of course, that doesn't make for a healthy economy, market, or society.
Student loans (yellow) are a problem (getting worthless degrees). But the overwhelming problem is mortgage debt (green). There is way too much of it. The fix is lower home prices. The problem is, every time I bring this up, many of the 86 million homeowners get upset.
Starts Publishing now down 6%. Earnings release in less than an hour. Now less than 7x 2026/12 earnings forecast, if all holds. Gotta love illiquid small caps with low float.
$7849.T (Starts Publishing) down -4.7% on speculation prior to earnings release as speculators jump on the down trend. Forward P/E now just 7.8x for a business with high double digit margins and ROE. Can't imagine how big of an earnings miss you need to justify that valuation.
Gotta admit, most of these are really good.
Nominations for Japan's Word of the Year just dropped. The content saw a lot of heat last year after the extremely controversial selection of a word nobody had ever heard used in day-to-day life. Some favorites below:
And honestly, all of that is pretty under-rated. Demographics are a real headwind, but that applies to most of the developed world. Meanwhile, Japan is one of the most functional and pragmatic societies in the world, and not locked in ideological battles to the death. Maybe…
The internet is full of “Japan is doomed” talking heads but life here is still pretty stable with low inflation, low crime, affordable housing, and *fairly* low levels of political polarization and culture war type strife
Since the start of October, Japanese small caps have been lagging the TOPIX something awful. If you're a small cap value guy, you're probably looking like a fool right now as your cheap stocks keep getting even cheaper, yet the index soars. But this feels like a "pushing on a…
Value investing is the art of looking and feeling stupid until you look and feel like a genius. Not easy, but preferable to the reverse.
Ever wondered what music sounded like in Ancient History? Well, I bring to your attention Hurrian Hymn No. 6. At 3400 years old, it's the oldest song that we've actually been able to reconstruct. Most people will never take a few minutes to stop, listen, and appreciate it. I know…
Scientists, physicians and public health experts are only human—put them in a system of corrupting incentives, corruption will be the result Trusting experts is not a reasonable prescription. Building systems in which experts are trustworthy is. Trust the trustworthy.
Scientists, physicians, and public health experts dedicate years - often decades - to education, training, and service. Their sacrifices are enormous, often at great personal cost, but driven by a deep commitment to improve the lives of others. My advice: trust the experts.
Does private equity actually create value for anyone? I mean, other than private equity. I suspect it's a huge net negative for both investors and the businesses that get acquired in its current form, and I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't one of the most violent bubbles to…
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