Macro Path

@macro_path

Quantitative macro & market cycles. Rules-based strategies. Run by an independent PhD computational scientist and investor—research log, not investment advice.

Joined November 2025

127Posts 27Followers 34Following

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Macro Path

@macro_path

Nov 25

Thread: Working thesis on Bitcoin’s current cycle and a 2026 roadmap, based on the last three 4-year cycles and weekly SMAs (50/100/200/300). Not financial advice.

Macro Path

@macro_path

3 h

BTC $90,566.67 | Weekly SMAs | SMA20 -11.55% | SMA50 -10.70% | SMA100 +4.72% | SMA200 +57.97% #Bitcoin #BTC

Macro Path

@macro_path

10 h

Watching $NDX weekly close

Macro Path

@macro_path

Dec 29

Repeated 90K rejections have been brutal for #Bitcoin bulls. The last few weeks look like downside capitulation in #BTCUSD—unless $NDX can reclaim/hold support into ATHs and momentum continues.

Macro Path

@macro_path

10 h

ETH $3,120.14 | SMA8 -1.36% | SMA20 +2.60% | SMA50 +3.19% | SMA100 -8.50% #ethereum, #altcoins

Macro Path

@macro_path

11 h

BTC $91,177.79 | SMA8 -0.50% | SMA20 +2.03% | SMA50 +2.11% | SMA100 -7.76% #Bitcoin #BTC

Macro Path

@macro_path

Dec 29

Repeated 90K rejections have been brutal for #Bitcoin bulls. The last few weeks look like downside capitulation in #BTCUSD—unless $NDX can reclaim/hold support into ATHs and momentum continues.

Macro Path

@macro_path

Dec 25

Merry Christmas! 🎄🎅 Wishing you and your loved ones health, prosperity, and many moments of happiness #MerryChristmas

🟦🔶 I think #Bitcoin topped on apathy — the 4‑yr cycle remains my base case; past tops were followed by Fed balance‑sheet upticks, so policy shifts alone may not halt a prolonged drawdown. I don’t expect a broad #altseason until equity weakness forces a dovish #macro pivot. I’d…

Macro Path

@macro_path

Dec 23

Still valid.

Macro Path

@macro_path

Dec 16

🟠 #Bitcoin weekly chart: The 100-week MA is holding as support. Resistance First resistance: 89K Next resistance: 93K (strong multi-week resistance). If it breaks, it could print the yearly candle green. Support 80K is the first support (macro support). If 80K breaks, next…

Macro Path

@macro_path

Dec 23

🟡⚪ I’m prepping a contrarian accumulation plan for the projected late‑2026 four‑year cycle lows — it will likely feel like the worst time to buy. Post‑lows I’ll look to add gold/silver on weakness as diversification and potential revaluation exposure. Risk markers: confirmed…

Macro Path

@macro_path

Dec 23

🟢🔴 I’m staying long into the Santa rally, riding the liquidity/rate‑cut narrative — but I’m pre‑planning to scale out or hedge into strength in Jan→mid‑Feb if a left‑translated weekly cycle top appears (26‑week cycle peaking before week 13; cutoff ≈ Feb 17). If topping…