Morpho Advisory
@morphoadvisory
Portfolio Mgmt * Macro-Quant Research * Unique insight into Market & Risk morphology * Uncorrelated alpha * Uncorrelated investment strategies * Not advice
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WEIRDO CALLS FOR 68% FALL IN STOCKS! S&P 500 targeting 1,540-ish (that's -65% from current levels) Go on, you know you want to find out ... (click the link, I dare you) #recession #stocks #finance #stockmarket $SPX #SP500 #economy #economics morpho.substack.com/p/weirdo-calls…
QUANTIMENTAL I dabble in both of the dark arts (fundamentals and quantitative) In this issue: • Algo efficacy and stochastic process as a lens for interpretation • Who might be in for a 120% drawdown, a 60% drawdown, and who might fall less? open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/q…
People saw #Bitcoin as a currency, but that didn't happen, so then it became a store of value via #hodling I think #BTC is just another vehicle for speculation & really only serves in terms of usefulness as a barometer for risk appetite. It's giving another early warning signal
MAD WORLD A Markov process of unusual events. A bunch of modern day Cassandras are ignored by those who are fixated on market price. How extreme is the current environment & the madness that has beset our world? It is a world without consequences. open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/m…
INDIAN SUMMER Repeating cycles but with some of that 'spicy life' variation Markets are no different to planetary seasons. They are subject to cycles, but to paraphrase George Orwell, “some cycles are more equal than others”. open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/i…
REPS Four sets of fifty .... and counting It seems that there is a pretty clear pattern emerging across some significant sectors in the U.S. economy. open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/r…
FOLLOW THE MONEY Tariffs are the biggest protection racket Politicians say they're acting to protect local industry. But truth & politics are unlikely bedfellows. Tariffs are simply a tax grab. It's the government looking after itself. open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/f…
Got this from X (artist formerly known as Twitter). In early days, there was sharing & exchange of ideas. Now it's just a few large "channels" b/c ppl follow who ppl follow. Social media is dead Do you remember when you joined X? I do, & I remember when it died #MyXAnniversary
If you haven't developed your own process of researching economic information & have just relied on federal institutions & financial media, it's probably too late for you. The old data was flawed, but greater obfiscation has now arrived. Narrative has officially displaced data.
FAN FICTION Stock market amateurs taking an existing work of fiction & creating new stories In the short-term, the long-term doesn’t go away (speculators need to learn this). In the long-term, the short-term is forgotten (ppl can be crazy for a long time) open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/f…
A CLAYTONS RESILIENT ECONOMY The resilient economy you have when you don't have a resilient economy While the Mag 7 hold up the stock market, they are also holding a veil over the U.S. economy in their pursuit of AI dominance open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/a…
ZERO-G DRIFT Newtonian economics Buying & selling is an external force that can be applied to markets. But gravity remains ever-present. Gravity in the context of financial markets is determined by the mass of the underlying economy. open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/z…
Did we predict conflict between Iran & Israel 2wks ago? No. We merely pointed out the propensity for higher oil prices b/c the market had pushed oil too low. Any catalyst would work. Our subscribers knew. #oott #oil, #oilandgas, #energy, #crudeoil, #petroleum, #oott #oilprice
STATIC ECONOMY 50 shades of white noise The flat economy of the last 2.5 years is not caused by politicians just as economic growth isn't. It is households & businesses having less free cash flow because the cost of servicing their debt has risen. open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/s…
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