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VrntPerception's profile picture. Quantitative discipline rooted in timeless economic principles. In search of repeatable Variant Perception.

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Quantitative discipline rooted in timeless economic principles. In search of repeatable Variant Perception.

4K貼文 26K位跟隨者 640個跟隨中
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VrntPerception's profile picture.
Variant Perception
@VrntPerception
年10月9日

Here's our solution:

VrntPerception's tweet image. Here's our solution:
VrntPerception's profile picture. Quantitative discipline rooted in timeless economic principles. In search of repeatable Variant Perception.
Variant Perception
@VrntPerception
年10月9日

Invest with the Capital Cycle instead.

VrntPerception's tweet image. Invest with the Capital Cycle instead.
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VrntPerception's profile picture.
Variant Perception
@VrntPerception
年11月20日

China growth leading indicator is turning over after strong improvement this year. Both the Fourth Plenum and the Trump-Xi meeting turned out to be underwhelming in terms of additional stimulus/relief measures. More stimulus will be needed to renew economic momentum despite the…

VrntPerception's tweet image. China growth leading indicator is turning over after strong improvement this year. Both the Fourth Plenum and the Trump-Xi meeting turned out to be underwhelming in terms of additional stimulus/relief measures. More stimulus will be needed to renew economic momentum despite the…
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VrntPerception's profile picture.
Variant Perception
@VrntPerception
年11月20日

The US Treasury data on withheld income taxes shows nominal incomes taxes still growing at >5%

VrntPerception's tweet image. The US Treasury data on withheld income taxes shows nominal incomes taxes still growing at >5%
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VrntPerception's profile picture.
Variant Perception
@VrntPerception
年11月19日

US housing remains a source of disinflation for the next 6 months. Rents continue to slow while more home listing are now seeing price drops than at any point over the past 10 years...

VrntPerception's tweet image. US housing remains a source of disinflation for the next 6 months. Rents continue to slow while more home listing are now seeing price drops than at any point over the past 10 years...
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VrntPerception's profile picture.
Variant Perception
@VrntPerception
年11月19日

This month we've been talking about 2002-2003 "jobless" growth analogy: Fed kept monetary policy easy while clusters of layoffs were announced, meanwhile we saw elevated excess liquidity after a drawdown in oil prices and recovering capital goods orders and retail sales .…

VrntPerception's tweet image. This month we've been talking about 2002-2003 "jobless" growth analogy: Fed kept monetary policy easy while clusters of layoffs were announced, meanwhile we saw elevated excess liquidity after a drawdown in oil prices and recovering capital goods orders and retail sales .…
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VrntPerception's profile picture.
Variant Perception
@VrntPerception
年11月14日

We view emerging market assets as a high beta play on the global liquidity cycle. Therefore, the best environments to own EM assets are when a) global excess liquidity is positive b) EM real money is growing faster than DM. This is a sign that excess liquidity is flowing into…

VrntPerception's tweet image. We view emerging market assets as a high beta play on the global liquidity cycle. Therefore, the best environments to own EM assets are when a) global excess liquidity is positive b) EM real money is growing faster than DM. This is a sign that excess liquidity is flowing into…
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VrntPerception's profile picture.
Variant Perception
@VrntPerception
年11月13日

We are seeing continued improvements in leading indicators for the cyclical growth picture in Europe–– suggesting economic momentum in the coming months. Structurally, challenges remain. Notably, electricity prices in Germany are 2.5x higher than in 2016.

VrntPerception's tweet image. We are seeing continued improvements in leading indicators for the cyclical growth picture in Europe–– suggesting economic momentum in the coming months. Structurally, challenges remain. Notably, electricity prices in Germany are 2.5x higher than in 2016.
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VrntPerception's profile picture.
Variant Perception
@VrntPerception
年11月11日

A break from regular posting to say Happy Veterans day from the team at Variant Perception–– thank you to our colleagues, clients, partners and all others who have served. We salute you.

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VrntPerception's profile picture.
Variant Perception
@VrntPerception
年11月11日

In our 2022 "Age of Scarcity Report" we wrote that it pays to invest alongside the USG... We've seen this play out in the past few years in chips, metals, defense, energy, and lately rare earth refining... still room to run in some other key areas... follow up report coming out…

VrntPerception's tweet image. In our 2022 "Age of Scarcity Report" we wrote that it pays to invest alongside the USG... We've seen this play out in the past few years in chips, metals, defense, energy, and lately rare earth refining... still room to run in some other key areas... follow up report coming out…
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United States 趨勢

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