Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Quantitative discipline rooted in timeless economic principles. In search of repeatable Variant Perception.

portal.variantperception.com/research

Joined May 2009

4KPosts 26KFollowers 630Following

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Pinned

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Oct 9

Here's our solution:

VrntPerception's tweet image. Here's our solution:

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Oct 9

Invest with the Capital Cycle instead.

VrntPerception's tweet image. Invest with the Capital Cycle instead.

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Oct 9

First miner LPPL bubble triggered in recent rally... canary in the gold mine?

VrntPerception's tweet image. First miner LPPL bubble triggered in recent rally... canary in the gold mine?

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Oct 9

Invest with the Capital Cycle instead.

VrntPerception's tweet image. Invest with the Capital Cycle instead.

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Oct 8

Speculative trading activity outpacing patient money in Palladium as of this week - as can be seen previous history, this is a short term tactical model that should be considered separately of structural view on palladium.

VrntPerception's tweet image. Speculative trading activity outpacing patient money in Palladium as of this week - as can be seen previous history, this is a short term tactical model that should be considered separately of structural view on palladium.

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Oct 8

In July, we highlighted that the gold-silver ratio implied catch up potential for silver. Last week, after a blistering rally, silver triggered an LPPL bubble exhaustion sell signal suggesting it was time to take some profits...

VrntPerception's tweet image. In July, we highlighted that the gold-silver ratio implied catch up potential for silver. Last week, after a blistering rally, silver triggered an LPPL bubble exhaustion sell signal suggesting it was time to take some profits...

Variant Perception reposted

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Oct 2

At present, our Capital Cycle scores are still high and improving for North American semiconductors. These companies are still earning a strong return on invested capital (ROIC) — in other words, the profits they generate on every dollar of investment more than cover their cost…

VrntPerception's tweet image. At present, our Capital Cycle scores are still high and improving for North American semiconductors. These companies are still earning a strong return on invested capital (ROIC) — in other words, the profits they generate on every dollar of investment more than cover their cost…

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Oct 7

We just got back from a great trip to Singapore and Hong Kong — always productive to catch up with clients and friends in the region. Our liquidity regime models flipped to preferring EM assets at the end of July–– tailwinds remain in place to support Asian asset prices.

VrntPerception's tweet image. We just got back from a great trip to Singapore and Hong Kong — always productive to catch up with clients and friends in the region.

Our liquidity regime models flipped to preferring EM assets at the end of July–– tailwinds remain in place to support Asian asset prices.

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Sep 26

Price action in small caps indicates some meaningful rotation. We proxy for the intensity of inflows by tracking the difference in upside and downside sensitivity of small caps relative to the S&P 500. Since 2021, we have seen a few false dawns for small cap inflows, but the…

VrntPerception's tweet image. Price action in small caps indicates some meaningful rotation. We proxy for the intensity of inflows by tracking the difference in upside and downside sensitivity of small caps relative to the S&amp;P 500. Since 2021, we have seen a few false dawns for small cap inflows, but the…

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Sep 24

We’re moving into a more favorable environment for active selection in small caps. Historically, periods of synchronized global central bank easing have created reflationary conditions that often pave the way for small-cap outperformance. Discerning investors can benefit from…

VrntPerception's tweet image. We’re moving into a more favorable environment for active selection in small caps. Historically, periods of synchronized global central bank easing have created reflationary conditions that often pave the way for small-cap outperformance.

Discerning investors can benefit from…

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Sep 24

Another one to look at, US Sectors. Semiconductors are still somewhat capital scarce relative to history...

VrntPerception's tweet image. Another one to look at, US Sectors. Semiconductors are still somewhat capital scarce relative to history...

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

Sep 24

Capital cycle and crowding update for thematic ETF's. Noteworthy that robotics and automation remain relatively uncrowded and capital scarce compared to its own 10y history

VrntPerception's tweet image. Capital cycle and crowding update for thematic ETF's. Noteworthy that robotics and automation remain relatively uncrowded and capital scarce compared to its own 10y history

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