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A 🧵about trade, tariffs, inflation, microeconomics and why @realDonaldTrump has made a very smart move on the trade chessboard. The US is the world’s Apex consumer. The US can’t negotiate trade deals if its trading partners already benefit from liberal access to the US…
Most people are still prompting wrong. I've found this framework, which was even shared by OpenAI President Greg Brockman. Here’s how it works:
Let me bust this nonsense once and for all. There is a myth out there that weak data will lead to rate cuts which will lead to a melt-up in equities. That’s not only moronic but also proved to be wrong in every cutting cycle since the 70s. While it’s in character for the market…
Gator Capital Management doesn't get nearly enough praise. Since inception in 2008. I'm guessing (?) this fund has been out in the open obvious for long enough that allocators already filled up his fund - if not that's genuinely insane.
Pretty good records, about in line with Robert Wilson's or Stan Druckenmiller's CAGR. Worse drawdowns, but these scale better.
From a 1974 book by Joseph Rothschild, "East Central Europe between the two World Wars" h/t @JacobWolinsky Sounds kinda familiar. #FedHistory
The number one market leader is not the largest company or the one with the most recognized brand name; it’s the one with the best quarterly and annual earnings growth, return on equity, profit margins, sales growth, and price action. William O'Neil
4419.99 4480.01 4515.00 4583.4 4677.1312 if those go, SPX 5500
Sept 2006: “Stocks Rally on Fed’s second pause … rates unchanged at 5.25%” We first had a 20% rally in the $SPX for a year, until 2008 hit us. Point being, market gonna do what market gonna do. And what does Yellen want? Listen to the excellent interview with @RudyHavenstein…
Here’s a BBG table giving the maths per various curve points for a +/- 50 bp move
Let me just make one thing clear. The bond doomists, waging all sorts of fear mongering from term premium to supply to bear steepening, are clearly not traders. Let me explain. When you enter a trade, you always have a plan. A stop-loss, an expected R/R and a profit target if…
Anyone in London, last week to see this superb exhibition at Christie's. christies.com/events/kawkaba…
We definitely do not talk enough about the insane depopulation of Eastern Europe since 1990. Wars, aging, and emigration. In 1990, Ukraine & Turkey were even. Turkey is now double Ukraine's pop. For many countries this depopulation literally surpasses the death tolls of WWII.
I'd like to think these widely-followed / FinTwit OG accounts that used to follow StockCats are just unaware I changed handles - rather than assume they are now pleased to be rid of my incessant litter-box posts and nonsense @RampCapitalLLC
Anyone in London with an interest in Modern Arab Art, there is a superb exhibition by the Barjeel Art Foundation on at Christies. thenationalnews.com/arts-culture/2…
thenationalnews.com
What to expect from largest exhibition of Arab art in London | The National
The Christie’s show will present landmark works, as well as a section dedicated to contemporary Emirati artists
What is ignored or neglected by the media -- but will be studied by historians? Here's the full list of 25 examples:
Buckle up, massive @WifeyAlpha drop commencing. Twitter has a limit to the # of strings one can add in a 🧵, so I will add individual strings and then make them all come together in a master 🧵, inception style. Bear with me, more strings coming this week, rules are rules 🤝
Posted an important thread on Kitty. 🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩
When you have a high conviction macro view, backed by solid data and a sound understanding of economic and liquidity flows, you’ve only ticked the first step of a multi-step process. Only experience and a deep understanding of positioning can help you identify the highest r/r…
The number of large cap “growth” companies that are in fact growing topline above inflation, or double digit+, is increasingly small. Take the GS “high growth investment ratio basket”: Barely a third of these are expected to grow 10%+ this year. Quite a few are… shrinking.
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