The Blob warned us
@systemrename
Stratosphere enthusiast, foamer, vagabond.
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This account makes unlinked assertions based on intuition, is not a researcher, student, or professional in the field. It's meant to be useful, but not authoritative. I am a weather weenie trying to explain my reasoning for polar vortex stuff. :D
these polar vortex evolutions are confusing and contentious every year... that's ok. this is the work. there isn't a handy explanation in the literature yet. it should be confusing. a golden decade of discovery is upon us.
Elevated stratopause events in the current and a future climate: A chemistry-climate model study sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Next stratospheric warming pulse appears, beginning over the East Asia region day 16-17 GEFS Extended. A series of warming pulses leading to midwinter, 60N U wind could go close to zero several times.
Something beyond medium range? CFS 46 day stratosphere shifted the maximum warmth at 10hPa to 12 of December.
After the forecast SSW in late November another pulse of stratospheric warming appears in GEFS extended in the December 15-20 timeframe. Both hemispheres are negative in annular mode from space to surface.
The fingerprint of negative AAO/SAM - sub-Antarctic westerlies pushed northward. Differing alignment of planetary waves has brought slightly cooler air masses to southern Australia during the first half of November, compared with October.
"The most striking feature of the stratospheric reflection events is thus a rapid, continental-scale decrease in temperatures. These emerge as continental-scale cold spells by the end of the reflection events." wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/121…
my non-canonical SSW idea will be looking for a quick recovery of zonal wind after peak warming
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