Tom Holden
@t_holden
Researcher, macroeconomist, Bundesbank. All views are my own personal opinions and do not reflect the opinion of the Bundesbank, the Eurosystem, or its staff.
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I'm not going to be cool about this. This is a huge deal for me. I still can't believe it's real. I've somehow rolled this Trojan horse of a paper past the gates of the Top 5. Under its nerdy exterior hides answers to some of the most fundamental question of monetary econ. 1/
With a standard monetary rule & heterogeneous households, beliefs of a coming recession can become self-fulfilling. Monetary rules responding 1 for 1 to the real rate observed in TIPS markets prevent this & give near perfect control of inflation. @t_holden econometricsociety.org/publications/e…
Life goal achieved: Apparently I warrant a footnote in a Benhabib paper*. * With Acharya, who is also great of course.
This is yet one more illustration of why r* is the wrong intercept for a monetary rule. Unobservables are invitations to make up your favourite numbers. The right intercept is the current observed real rate from TIPS. This delivers everything people wrongly imagine r* delivers.
Today I worked through the arithmetic of how I came to my policy projections for appropriate monetary policy. There's a lot of numbers in the speech, but given the divergence between my views and other FOMC members, I felt it necessary to be meticulous and transparent.
And this is why central banks should follow a monetary rule.
@professor_ajay at NBER AI points out an amazing short comment by Danny Kahneman back at our 1st Econ of AI conference in 2017. Main point: AI has less noise than humans. Most discussion is about bias, but take that noise comment seriously...it's very deep.
I disagree. We are poor judges of what is "politically feasible." If we never say what the promised land looks like -- consumption taxes, say -- and content ourselves with fiddling with what we think is "politically feasible," then we shall surely never get there. The 8 hour day,…
5/n I believe that said this way both @ojblanchard1 and @JohnHCochrane must agree: economist must consider political feasibility because this in fact maximizes long-term aggregate welfare.
If Merz was serious he would start by ending final salary pensions for civil servants. Then he should strip the civil service down to only those workers who the country could not survive without in a war. Neither teachers, academics nor central bankers should be civil servants.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has called for a reform of Germany's social welfare spending while ruling out tax increases on medium-sized companies. 👉 p.dw.com/p/4zPjS
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