
David Andolfatto 🇮🇹 🇨🇦 🇺🇸
@dandolfa
Construction worker turned academic turned central banker turned academic again. Chair, Economics Department @MiamiHerbert University of Miami
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Hey, I spent Sunday morning thinking about macroeconomic theory.🤓 MacroMania: A Journey in Macroeconomic Thinking andolfatto.blogspot.com/2021/02/a-jour…
China -- per the excellent reporting on the WSJ/ @Lingling_Wei -- appears to be pursuing a strategy of applying maximum pressure in pursuit of maximum concessions ... full tariff rollback, rollback of export controls, relaxation of nat'l security review on Chinese investment 1/

Econ nobel should go to the highest bidder if we want it to be allocated efficiently
There’s a fundamental gulf in US vs. Chinese perceptions of these actions. Beijing thinks it’s doing a tit-for-tat response. But Washington sees Beijing’s moves as “hostile” and escalatory.
Trump says the US relationship with China has been very good, and that he's surprised that the country would impose tighter controls on rare earth exports.

Well done, @ChicagoFed
Thrilled to announce that John Leahy will become the @chicagofed’s next director of research John, the Allen Sinai Professor of Macroeconomics and Public Policy and chair of the Econ dept. at @umich, is a lovely guy and a fabulous economist. Welcome to Da Bank, John.…

This is the new reality of US-China relations. China has spent the past several years building tools to reciprocate US actions and remind the US of its leverage. This action is consistent with PRC behavior all year - hold firm, hit US where it hurts, leave door open to negotiate.
Quite the day for Chinese export controls... Big things are happening.

Central banks have been blamed for the Great Depression, the 1970s inflation, and the 2008 crisis. So... do we even need them? 🤔 🧵(1/11)
Here are my full thoughts on Dan Wang’s new book, “Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future”, which is selling like hotcakes. Let me start by saying that if you're interested in China’s transformation — especially the economic aspect — I highly recommend this book. It’s…

Forgive me for saying something that many will find heretical, but I think this work is really just a few powerpoint slides written in academese for activists, and most certainly didn't deserve to be published in the world's top scientific journal nature.com/articles/s4158…
In a new paper, we provide fresh evidence on the macroeconomic effects of public investment in 27 EU member states. We find that public investment has favorable effects on output and unemployment; doesn't crowd out private investment; and doesn't jeopardise debt sustainability.

One of my favorite papers on the randomness of "meritocracy:" Participants in a famous classical music competition perform in random order, but this order affects the experts’ rankings, which in turn determine the musicians’ long-term career outcomes. Many such cases...

Indications are that the economics PhD job market will be a difficult one this year. Below is one indication, which shows number of job openings by week. The exact same thing happened when I went on the job market years ago: I sent out 150 applications...and got 1 interview!…

You should be skeptical of those who claim to have disproved economics, more than other fields. Economists know math and are the smartest and least ideological social scientists. Critiques from outside the field are rarely worth very much.
Two days ago, @pfitzsimmons and @palladiummag published a provocative article titled "How GDP Hides Industrial Decline." In my new blog post, I demonstrate that this article is "fractally wrong" -- it is embarrassingly flawed at literally every level of analysis.


Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027
Insane how Grok Imagine generates realistic movie scenes….It’s absolutely mind-blowing
Is the US diminished as a model for other countries to admire & emulate? Interested to hear views from inside and outside the US.
Ha-Joon Chang made a fascinating point about Trump in a recent conversation we had. He said that Trump is, in some ways, doing the world a favour with his reckless trade and foreign policies because we are now daring to imagine a world economy with less US influence.
As Placement Director again this, I am thrilled to present our excellent job-market candidates from ASU Economics @WPCareySchool . Here they are, ready for battle: wpcarey.asu.edu/economics-degr…
Let me add this paper by Besley et al, which is forthcoming in the @QJEHarvard, which, I think, provides a nice micro-foundation for between-cohort variation in zero-sum attitudes. They define “growth experience” as the average GDP growth an individual has lived through since

My three favourite papers on the political economy of zero-sum politics
The world’s largest high-speed train station is in China. Chongqing East Railway Station.
Yes I agree with all of this. But reading Laidler’s discussion on nineteenth and early twentieth century monetary theory is enlightening to a modern theorist, like me, schooled largely in the era of rational expectations. His book on the golden Age of the Quantity Theory is well…
Laidler’s 1983 note is a thoughtful clarification of Real Bills debates under convertibility. But it is anachronistic for fiat systems.

Fed has a Price Level Target?
In a chat the other day, someone doubted my claim that the post pandemic inflation has got us back to the Greenspan price level trend. Here's the evidence!

Actually, history shouted “Yes!”—in 1884, 1893, and 1907—and said it more quietly every harvest season, when legal restrictions kept banks from issuing more paper notes to meet farmers’ needs, causing interest rates to spike instead. 1/
Does growth require “elastic” money? History says no. Real output can rise while prices fall: no printing press needed. Elasticity mostly aids debtors and the state. @NewmanJ_R and @RyanMcMaken explain why sound money scales. #RothPod
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