FirstinWeather - Rohan Shroff
@FirstinWeather
Meteorologist/ Data Scientist Cornell 24 Focused on Mid-Atlantic, based in central VA
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This is our first busy winter with AI models available, and I am becoming increasingly impressed I find them much less noisy run to run (steadier) and they seem to latch onto things a bit earlier than their counterparts
Make no mistake, this is a synoptic pattern that was favorable for a major I-95 blizzard after hitting the Carolinas. However, a traffic jam from a wave train aloft and interference from the TPV keep this storm too far east. Much to the chagrin of some overzealous weenies.
The two favored regions for snow from our weekend nor'easter are: 1) The Carolinas: This is where all the upper forcing will initially crash in, first bringing a wave of snow and then coastal development. 2) SNE: Sticks out the furthest east, doesn't need as much amplification.
Today is the first time in 3,655 days where DC, Baltimore, Philly, NYC, and Boston all received at least 6” of snow.
5 inches of snow + sleet in Chantilly as of 11:40 am
Wow, just pouring sleet right now with a surface temp of 16 degrees, very impressive!
Starting to see some heavier rates build in central VA, which will start to make their way further north. Now it's all about how quickly we can light snow --> moderate rates in NOVA. Now just a waiting game. Will be interesting to see what we wake up to tomorrow!
As usual, Good Luck Snow Lovers! I'll be posting a little bit later night as we get closer to the first flakes in the DMV region.
Should clarify that this includes sleet as well. Most areas in the 6-9 zone will se 5-6 inches of snow, and then additional sleet accumulation on top of that.
Updated snowfall map. I've bumped up totals slightly for NOVA and central VA. I think 9 inches is a hard ceiling for most of NOVA due to decreasing ratios as the WAA aloft increases and the fact that snow will only be falling for 10-12 hours.
Updated snowfall map. I've bumped up totals slightly for NOVA and central VA. I think 9 inches is a hard ceiling for most of NOVA due to decreasing ratios as the WAA aloft increases and the fact that snow will only be falling for 10-12 hours.
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