Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
Sr fellow @PIIE. Sr advisor JPMC Institute. Was Under Secretary Econ Affairs @commercegov and chief economist @indeed @trulia. More at https://www.jedkolko.com/
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It's not a small world. It's just your small socio-economic stratum.
Global growth will remain uneven across regions as AI investment cushions the drag from trade tensions & policy uncertainty in the US, strong domestic demand sustains growth in India, Brazil faces slower growth with tight monetary policy, & more. Read: piie.com/blogs/realtime…
For the first time in about 70 years, net immigration to America could be zero. Beneath the noise of tariff and budget fights, migration may well be the biggest economic story of 2025. My latest for @TheEconomist: Welcome to Zero Migration America 🧵 + link below
Revelio says +60k jobs. ADP said -32k jobs. How are we feeling now?
Today's ADP jobs number reflects (downward) preliminary benchmark revision; official BLS jobs report won't reflect this revision until Jan 2026. ADP as published: -32k ADP w/o revision: +11k Widen your confidence intervals accordingly!
So how is everyone feeling about private sector data subbing in for official statistics?
We should be careful with latest from ADP: "The most recent release of QCEW contained a higher-than-normal number of missing or redacted values for establishment size by NAICS sector & geography subgroups. This required the benchmark to be calculated at a coarser granularity"
Don't make predictions that can be falsified within weeks!
Anyway, lessons learned: -Be more skeptical about applying normal relationships to extraordinary times -Be more skeptical of intuitive/appealing conclusions -Confidence often doesn't tell you what you think it does -Don't make predictions that can be falsified within weeks
I’m in @PostOpinions today talking about how the admin’s H-1B policy efforts are part of a misguided campaign against international students here for advanced STEM degrees - who help America *and* Americans when they *stay here* and join the US STEM workforce.
The White House has withdrawn the nomination of EJ Antoni to lead BLS: cnn.com/2025/09/30/pol…
Erosion of Fed independence—such as Trump succeeding in pressing the Fed to lower rates further than it would otherwise—would slow US economic growth through most of the next decade, & boost inflation through 2040. #PIIECharts
"BLS Would Delay Next US Jobs Report Based on Prior Shutdown Plan" -- Bloomberg News bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The H-1B fee would be an "obliteration of any nongovernmental organization's ability to hire" foreign talent, @m_clem says, & "all but impossible" for smaller startups to hire the necessary people. "It will devastate their prospects." dw.com/en/how-donald-…
Q2 GDP revised up this morning, but 2025 growth rate is slower than 2024 on all key measures. GDP: 2.4% in 2024, 1.6% in 2025 GDI: 2.6% in 2024, 2.4% in 2025 FSPDP: 2.9% in 2024, 2.4% in 2025 (2024 = 23Q4 to 24Q4) (2025 = 24Q4 to 25Q2, annualized)
Here's a new GAO report on the federal statistical system's need to modernize and adapt to a rapidly changing data landscape--based on a forum GAO held in 2024 with experts and stakeholders. gao.gov/products/gao-2…
The economies of red states are doing a lot better this year than the economies of blue states. Like everything else, job growth is increasingly polarized.
This morning, the @chicagofed introduced new labor market indicators that combine private sector data with official labor statistics to provide a real-time view of hiring, layoffs and other job separations, and an early forecast of the unemployment rate. chicagofed.org/research/data/….
Update: The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.
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