The Spread Thread
@SpreadThread1
Former head of credit strategy | Investor/Trader | Add your email at http://TheSpreadSite.com to receive our research to your inbox for no charge
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Banks, housing, retail, mid-caps rolling over. I’d add one credit crack after another (i.e., BDCs - private credit, getting smoked). Some warning signs about economic momentum. More interesting, in my view, than the newest round of trade headlines.
$SPY -0.7% in the last month $KRE $XRT $XHB smoked Mid-caps down 5%. Few talking about that.
We put this out on BDCs a while back for those who want to better understand the sector… thespreadsite.com/bdc-yields/
Kieran is possibly the best PM on credit I have ever met. Not a punter or big short guy just great all the time. Worth understanding this post
Maybe it’s not that inconsistent. Bond yields falling b/c growth is weak, pricing in cuts. Stocks rallying b/c investors believe the cuts will work (I.e., looking through the soft patch). When/if investors no longer believe the cuts will work (or will cause harm) stocks go down
Not the tightest ever. But yes, tight. Either way. Credit isn’t the forward looking indicator people think. Spreads were at all-time tights in mid-2007. Also, note, unlike stocks, credit has not gotten back to the tights hit early this year. A bit of a divergence Left chart MS
4 prints, not 1. +19, -13,+79, +22 (may-aug). My simplistic view - when the economy is averaging 150k like early this year, there is cushion to absorb headwinds. When it’s averaging 25k that cushion is gone. Things aren’t falling off a cliff. But risks are higher at stall speed.
Worth a quick read
Seems like Trump can use various other measures to reinstitute the tariffs while appealing IEEPA all the way to supreme court, per GS 4. The Trump administration has other authorities it can use to impose tariffs similar to those the court struck down: The administration could…
Which of the following will have the highest total return over the next 12 months:
I believe GS recently put out a 1% annual real return for the SPX over the next 10yrs given starting valuations. Just one forecast, and they may be too pessimistic. But long-term TIPS now pay 2.75% real. For retirees who live off the income on their assets, seems like a gift.
Now above 2.75% on the 30yr TIPS Everybody loved it for years at 1%
But how much really changed? Before last week consensus was probably 10% country tariffs/ 25% key sectors/ ~50% China. And we now have 10/25/30. Yes uncertainty is down. But I think this is mainly a case of markets tank -> economists bearish. Markets rip -> economists bullish.
If your favorite Fintwit personality was bullish the US economy before last weekend's shift, political preferences are clouding their views. Same if they didn't shift more positive on the economy afterward. And if they say they perfectly predicted this path, they are full of it
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