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super-macro.com A Historic Gold Run Without the Panic Premium Gold has surged nearly 50% YTD, but implied volatility hasn’t budged - still near January levels. Normally, higher gold prices push vol higher (positive vol skew), but not this time. In the last 3 months,…
super-macro.com SOFR implied vol showing a green light for risk assets SOFR futures have rebounded close to recent highs, with markets now pricing a 3-month rate near 3% by December 2026. Implied volatility remains deeply depressed, signalling little expectation of a…
super-macro.com ISM prices show CPI is heading north The ISM services Prices index – which has typically provided a reliable lead on inflation - pointed to further, elevated price pressure.
super-macro.com New kid on the block making noise Revelio Labs* estimated nonfarm payrolls rose 60K in September after a 25K gain in August. The firm’s data include government employment and have tended to understate total nonfarm payroll growth, though they’ve captured…
super-macro.com S&P 500’s 2025 Rally Driven by Earnings, Not Multiple Expansion The S&P 500’s 2025 rally reflects fundamentals, not multiple expansion. After back-to-back 20%+ gains in 2023–24 driven by a PE rise (18 → 25), this year’s gains stem from earnings growth.…
super-macro.com Resilient US Consumers Maintain Momentum in Q3 US consumers kept their wallets open in August, despite a softer labour market. Real spending rose 0.4% (double expectations), and July’s increase was revised higher. Even if September is flat, Q3…
super-macro.com Sidestepping Drawdowns: Gold vs. the S&P 500 Central banks remain steady buyers of gold, largely indifferent to price swings, and are accumulating it as part of a broader push to diversify reserves away from the dollar. While gold underperformed the S&P…
super-macro.com Japan’s Wage–Price Cycle Takes Shape Real GDP has risen for 5 straight qtrs, pointing to a durable expansion despite U.S. tariff headwinds. Corporate profits are at record highs, the labour market is tight, and wages are accelerating - July cash earnings…
www,super-macro.com Hot CPI, Cooler PCE Tariffs will continue lifting goods prices, while services inflation has been stable for 5 straight months. Core goods inflation climbed to 1.5%, the highest in 2+ years. The August .3% increase in the core was hotter than it…
FOMC is this Wednesday. Will the Fed cut rates? Listen to the experts, including: @FedGuy12 @super_macro @MPelletierCIO @LastBearStandng Listen in on Wednesday at 1255PM EST:
super-macro.com Cut Locked In, Path Unclear A cut at the FOMC is a done deal — the question is if Powell signals 3x25bps by year-end and extended easing into 2026. With the Fed’s Inflation/unemployment forecasts from Jun still valid, and, GDP likely revised up (Q3…
super-macro.com Italy is turning into a source of stability Meloni is now the longest-serving PM since Berlusconi’s 2011 exit, with her govt among the 4th-longest in post-1946 history. According to Bloomberg : lower borrowing costs give up to €13bn extra fiscal space…
super-macro.com Labor Market Noise, Not Material Weakness Hiring has cooled, but layoffs remain low. Last week’s spike in jobless claims was likely holiday distortion and a one-off surge in Texas filings. Expect reversal in next week’s data - no sign yet of a broad…
super-macro.com Americans Are Richer Than Ever - Fed Ready to Pour Gasoline on the Fire US household wealth hit $176.3Tin Q2 - a record high. Stocks soared and home equity climbed further, while debt growth stayed modest. Treasuries, equities & gold all climbed last…
super-macro.com UK housing market downturn deepened in August. The RICS survey a long-standing lead indicator of UK house price inflation slid to -18.5 from -13.4 The net balance of new buyer enquiries fell to -17% from -7%, highlighting weaker demand, while the balance…
super-macro.com Legarde: the Eurozone labour market is a 'source of strength' The number of people out of work declined by a massive 170K in August – the steepest monthly drop since January 2022 – helping lower the unemployment rate for a third straight month, back to…
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