Bob's Payment Stock Substack
@bobspaysubstack
Former analyst and portfolio manager. Fundamental buy-and-hold investor. Talking stocks and markets. Politics and golf occasionally. This is not advice.
Excited to share my #Payments and #FinTech Quarterly Review for Q3 2025 - please consider sharing if you find this informative, thank you! $V $MA $AXP $ADYEN $PYPL $SHOP $TOST $XYZ $FI $GPN $FOUR $LSPD $BILL $CPAY $AFRM $KLAR $CHYM $DAVE open.substack.com/pub/bobhammel/…
Payment Volume Trend Commentary PayPal $PYPL: Q4 branded checkout growth at least a couple points lower than Q3, average order values down, tougher holiday comparison Block $XYZ: @Square Q4 GPV growth in the 10%-ish range (12% in Q3), October weather events, pretty strong…
PayPal $PYPL doing their best Block $XYZ impression and talking down Q4 yet again, branded checkout growth expected to be “at least a couple points slower” than Q3
Shopify $SHOP Black Friday Sales Never a good idea to extrapolate a single day of volume, but given the significance of Black Friday (BF), a lot of people do that, including for $SHOP. $SHOP reported BF sales of $6.2B, up 25% from last year, but only 22% on a FXN basis, a…
Excited to share my #Payments and #FinTech Quarterly Review for Q3 2025 - please consider sharing if you find this informative, thank you! $V $MA $AXP $ADYEN $PYPL $SHOP $TOST $XYZ $FI $GPN $FOUR $LSPD $BILL $CPAY $AFRM $KLAR $CHYM $DAVE open.substack.com/pub/bobhammel/…
In Q3, #FinTech lending volume grew 32% globally. In the U.S., adding BNPL and liquidity product originations (collectively +>40%) to credit card PV, adds 80-bps of growth, with overall volume up 7.7%. $AFRM $KLAR $XYZ $DAVE $CHYM
It would take Shopify $SHOP growing its FCF at a rate of 20% for 14 years to reach a similar valuation (P-to-FCF) as the combination of Global Payments $GPN, Fiserv $FISV, and PayPal $PYPL TTM FCF
Shift4 $FOUR, PayPal $PYPL, Fiserv $FISV, Global Payments $GPN and Block $XYZ have laid out targets that would make their stock prices appear extremely attractive today. The problem is no one believes them. If they can do it, the stocks are likely to do very well from this point
If we look across #Payments and #FinTech companies, only American Express $AXP trades at a premium to its long-term multiple - every other company trades at a discount, notably $GPN (71% discount), $FISV (66%), $FOUR (61%) and $PYPL (60%)
I'm old enough to remember the college basketball season kicking off with the Maui Invitational over Thanksgiving weekend. Now, they're already a month into the season by then.
Curious, a non-scientific poll…For the Block $XYZ holders out there, was your decision to invest based on a pro $BTC/crypto worldview, incidental to it, or had no influence?
A lot of positives from Block’s $XYZ Investor Day, but the market is likely to take a wait-and-see approach before giving it full credit for the ambitious targets it laid out. My thoughts - open.substack.com/pub/bobhammel/…
Do people really believe they won’t cut in December? Have they not been paying attention the past 15+ years?
Block $XYZ has officially joined the "Cheap in '28" Payments club (hey, that rhymes): Block $XYZ $39B Mkt Cap <10x $4B '28 FCF Shift4 $FOUR $7B Mkt Cap <7x $1B '28 FCF Global Payments $GPN $20B Mkt Cap ~4x $5B '28 FCF I own all three
Well, I’ve made it to 1,500 followers (unless someone unfollows me before I finish composing this tweet) - if you’re interested in some rarely accurate Payments and FinTech takes, I just may be your man 😁
Block $XYZ Investor Day Positive Block is adding profitable volume for Square. Given the events of the past few weeks—Fiserv $FISV rescinding select fees for Clover, and Square missing Q3 gross profit expectations despite better-than-expected GPV growth—Block emphasized it was…
Block $XYZ Investor Day Positive Strong and increasing incremental margins. With Block, there’s always concern over the re-emergence of aggressive spending to support future growth opportunities. I’m not necessarily sure how big of a concern that was for the market recently, but…
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