Brian Coughlin
@EquityBrian
Independent research uncovering value, analyzing business quality, and identifying mispriced opportunities → https://open.substack.com/pub/equitybrian
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Took a new position in Shift4 Payments $FOUR. Here’s the full write-up/thesis: open.substack.com/pub/coughlinca…
Unpopular opinion: anyone blowing up their accounts or down huge from one 3% pullback are not serious people Be very careful who you follow on this platform… if you stick around long enough you can tell the fakes easy anyway.
Remember, don’t make TACO memes just tell him he’s very smart and very tough and Art of the Deal
This isn’t escalation. It’s negotiation. The structure, timing, and behavior all make that obvious. Cooler heads will prevail, as always.
This is hilarious. Under China’s new crackdown, Taiwan-based TSMC cannot sell any semiconductor chips to the US, because those chips have… rare earth minerals from mainland China! 😩 😆
$BABA
First NBA 2025 game in China, lots of VIPs: Jack Ma, Beckham, Joe Tsai, etc Nets vs Sun. (Tencent’s Pony Ma rarely goes to these kinds of public events. His PartyQ is the highest.)
💯 accurate - “This isn’t a grand shift in policy. It’s negotiation in public. Beijing tightens rare-earth exports and asks for maximum concessions. Trump swings back with tariff talk. Both sides are flexing before they sit down. Markets tend to confuse theater with substance $JD
Think I’ll have TACOs for dinner… gonna call it the greatest meal ever made. People are saying no one eats tacos better than me.
China -- per the excellent reporting on the WSJ/ @Lingling_Wei -- appears to be pursuing a strategy of applying maximum pressure in pursuit of maximum concessions ... full tariff rollback, rollback of export controls, relaxation of nat'l security review on Chinese investment 1/
We’ve seen this play out a million times — Trump shoots first and thinks later. Scott Bessent will likely come out, clear the air, and a deal gets done. They haven’t come this far just to squash it a few weeks before a set meeting.
BUY CHINA $KWEB $BABA $JD
This is what happens when your chairman also owns an NBA team. $BABA
Alibaba Cloud $BABA and NBA China announced today a new multiyear partnership to "reimagine the ways fans in China experience and engage with the NBA through AI and cloud technologies"
I still think $JD is >$40/share by year-end.
Hard to find a stock as cheap as $JD right now… Core biz is fine, valuation isn’t. I’m long.👇 open.substack.com/pub/coughlinca…
I just published my cautious view on the current state of the AI market & why I have trimmed or sold many of my positions. - We are running out of organic capital - GPUs are a fast-depreciating asset - Valuations are factoring in a very small chance of things slowing down
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