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Been playing around with Deep Research this week. The output is 80% equivalent to asking an entry-level employee to research something for a week But it takes 8 minutes. And you have unlimited employees It’s the most impressive product experience I’ve had in…a decade?
I collected the 2025 portfolio updates from 63 blogs (and added another 100 to the website). Here are 17 of the most interesting:
Without the “Magnificent 7”, the S&P 500 would have only gained 4.1% in 2023 and 6.3% in 2024 on a price return basis. The index’s actual price returns were 24.2% and 23.3%, respectively.
A thread of accounts I've found most interesting: @robertskmiles @AlecStapp @waitbutwhy @skdh @robinhanson @amasad @cremieuxrecueil @bscholl @tylercowen @MaxCRoser @ahistoryinart @DKThomp @levie @ryangrim @scienceisstrat1 @CuriosMuseum
Here’s another document I came across while researching Buffett’s Early Investments (pre-order here: amzn.to/48miOBi). Notes from a 2000 talk to Columbia students.
15 Investing Lessons: 1. Timing the market is a dangerous game.
Buy Then Build is a classic. It’s the manual for entrepreneurship through acquisition. And while it covers all the basics, it also has some nuanced ideas that I’d forgotten! 🧵 (I’m brushing up because we booked Walker Diebel for @holdcoconf 2025!)
New York Community Bancorp’s recovery from a tumultuous year is far from over, but months of work spent trying to transform the lender may finally be paying off. trib.al/OulWPGk
bloomberg.com
NYCB Shares Rise as Barclays Says ‘Heavy Lifting’ Is Complete
New York Community Bancorp’s recovery from a tumultuous year is far from over, but months of work spent trying to transform the lender may finally be paying off.
China did pay for most of the Trump tariffs. If the additional proceeds were spent on more popular things Americans valued like new infrastructure or college education they would be more popular. 20% tariffs only changed the price of impacted goods by around relative to…
What’s the best explanation for why $DG has fallen apart over the past few yrs? Is it just share loss to $WMT + inflation blowing up the PnL? Old enough to remember when this was one of the highest quality and “compounder” retail stocks
Everyone's worried about AI capex IRR, but MS model shows CSPs' economics look solid. A 100MW datacenter with ~98,400 GPUs can still deliver high IRRs assuming: $4/hr per GPU, 80% utilization, and 10-30% annual price declines
Li Lu’s former analyst Robert Joo-Hyung Lee (Anseres Capital Management) quotes Luca Dellanna on the importance of survival in investing & in life ⛷️ : "I’m not just making the banal point that survival matters. I’m saying it matters more than performance." - @DellAnnaLuca How…
These 9 companies are currently trading within 5% of their 52W Low: 1) $MC LVMH Moët Hennessy • Market cap: €315 billion • Drawdown: 28% • PE: 19.8x • PS: 3.5x • EV/EBIT: 14.8x
Long $CNH at $10. $12.5B market cap co that will earn $1.45 this year—so, 6.5x earnings on below mid-cycle figure, or a 14x PE discount to S&P (all-time extreme) for an underlevered, oligopoly-type business that ran a 30% ROE last year. No brainer.
Just 1 in 6 renter households moved in the last year. Most renters are renewing their leases. Recent stickiness of apartment renewal rent growth among the public REITs suggests shelter inflation will be higher for longer. Any bend here would show up in shelter CPI 12 mos later.
My story for what has happened to inflation and what it means going forward. TL;DR: Underlying inflation fell from 4.0-4.5% to 2.5-3.0% as labor markets loosened (through openings down not unemployment up). Last mile will be much harder than to date. A shortish 🧵
It would be mistaken to say companies like Pratt and Whitney have not innovated on jet engine design in the last 70+ years of making them. For example, 13 years ago they added this single gear between the compressor stage and turbofan at a program cost of only $10 billion. 🧵
A 40-minute routine for guys over 40 to build muscle, lose weight, and prevent injuries. Bookmark this for your next gym day:
30 things no one tells you when you reach the age of 40: 1. No one prepares you for the fact you will go to more funerals & this will increase as you get older. The people you love will eventually pass, so we must cherish them now while we have them.
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