Arun Rao
@sudoraohacker
Builder of large-scale ML systems; adjunct prof @ucla; ex quant derivatives trader & startup founder. Tweets on AI, tech, science, & econ.
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My favorite books and reading trace for 2024: BEST BOOKS OF 2024 Bennett, A Brief History of Intelligence: Evolution, AI, and the Five Breakthroughs That Made Our Brains. An exploration of the evolutionary milestones that shaped human intelligence. The book goes from LUCA to…
Interesting JMP relevant to recent debates on here. Finds that rising housing costs account for ~50% of fertility decline 2000-2020. Boosting supply of small housing units raises fertility, but boosting supply of large housing units raises it even more.
Reading this, its clear that Meta is advancing / recommender systems tech faster than other places including G.
We’re excited to share details on Meta’s Generative Ads Recommendation Model (GEM), a new foundational model built with LLM-scale techniques that’s already helping create more value for businesses, like +5% increase in ad conversions on Instagram. Dive deep into the technology…
Burry is wrong here. GPU lives are often 6-9 years, so even a 6-year useful life is on the low end. The practical reason to sell or replace a GPU rack is newer GPUs are much more power efficient, so if you have limited shells and DC capacity, you’re better off upgrading. Very…
Understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings -one of the more common frauds of the modern era. Massively ramping capex through purchase of Nvidia chips/servers on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful…
We’re just starting on the biggest infrastructure project in human history: “By the end of the year, AI data centers could collectively see >$300 billion in investment, around 1% of US GDP. That’s bigger than the Apollo Program (0.8%) and Manhattan Project (0.4%) at their…
AI data center buildouts already rival the Manhattan Project in scale, but there’s little public info about them. So we spent the last few months reading legal permits, staring at satellite images, and scouring news sources. Here’s what you need to know. 🧵
When people are suffering because the cost of living is too high, and you (as a policymaker) intend to spend public money to fix this, there are two main routes: - subsidize demand, or - subsidize supply Subsidizing demand is "give people money to pay for the expensive thing."…
Do you think GDP is an accurate Econ stat in 2025? Mississippi GDP per Capita: $53k Chongqing GDP Per Capita: $14k Mississippi Econ Backbone: Eggs farms and food stamps Chongjing Econ Background: Automotive, Electronics, Defense, semiconductors, high tech, tourism
Interesting that falling rental prices only happen in red states (and two purple states). I keep telling friends who are Dems that the last 10 to 20 years shows that Democratic officials and policymakers hate affordable housing and it’s why the party polls worse with poorer…
Here's something fascinating happening in the apartment market right now. The cheapest, oldest apartments (Class C) are getting crushed right now. But ONLY in cities that just delivered tons of new apartments. Let me show you the numbers: Denver: Class C rents down 13.9%…
Yet another proposal, a good one, to reform the EU and focus on economic prosperity. I hope @vonderleyen and the EC pay attention to and act on it, but the odds seem low. Stagnation and decline are a choice, so let’s see if EU leadership drastically change course. “This…
AND IT IS OUT! We have had enough reports saying Europe is stagnating. Change is not possible if we do not change the way the EU works. With Bengt Holmstrom and @competitionprof , I argue the EU should focus on prosperity and stop regulating everything. constitutionofinnovation.eu
Mathematicians handling linear algebra to the machine learning community.
The graph, extended: “We find that productivity growth was zero before 1600.” Early land reforms and, most importantly, the industrial revolution introduced the first singularity for growth in human history. Reasonable to argue whether AI is the second or more of the same.
Joking aside, here's my base case for thinking about AI's impact on GDP growth. I think we'll keep growing at 2%. Stuff like AI that comes once in a while how we managed to grow at 2%/y as we've done for millennia since the first industrial revolution. There’s no sense in which…
"pmarca is beefing with the pope" history doesn't repeat but it rhymes
Peter Thiel today: “Boomers are strangely uncurious about how the world is not really working for their kids. It’s always hard to know how much bad faith there is or how bad the actors are. I think it’s odd that people thought it was odd that I was complaining about student debt…
Goldman Sachs is building an 800,000-square-foot, $500 million campus in Dallas, which will be the bank’s largest US operation outside New York and house over 5,000 employees when it opens in 2028. JPMorgan Chase has expanded its Texas workforce to over 31,000, surpassing its…
A lot of the best ways to manage agents are kind of like the processes you’d use to manage people—if the people were: 1. insanely knowledgeable 2. incredibly cheap 3. startlingly creative yet really stupid 4. never quit when you gave them mind-numbing volumes of reports, forms,…
Absolutely agree! I’d add the big missing piece here is templates, gates, and rules: you need to lay out a structure for things as well as specific enforcements at proper stages during the work. We don’t seem to have a great format for this but even basic templates for specs for…
A line I still love, from Rick and Morty of all places: “Your boos mean nothing to me, I’ve seen what makes you cheer”
i miss “post rationalism”, a principled school of thought, which has now been replaced by its idiot cousin “populism”
Thoughts on US vs China regarding AI capex and models: These are from conversations with some very smart Chinese tech insiders, and I hope @ruima or @mattsheehan88 will add more color from their own separate conversations while in China. Context: -US hyperscaler capex should…
$5T ABOUT TO BE DEPLOYED INTO AI INFRASTRUCTURE $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOGL & $META capex is set to hit ~$3T by 2029 as they race to secure power, land & GPUs to meet all the model demand. Each new generation of AI needs A TON more compute & energy. The bottleneck is clearly power.
Maybe we just had poor Presidents for 22 years? Like, we need our party, primary, and media elites to help us pick better candidates?
No president in the last 22 years has had more than 12 straight months with an approval rating over 50 percent, and the entire developed world is basically in a protracted convulsion over cost of living concerns and kicking out various bums from office. This is not the only…
Excellent conversation-plenty of interesting and controversial takes. Glad to watch this live at the Progress Conference a few weeks ago.
My excellent Conversation with Sam Altman: conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/sam-a…, @sama
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