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supermacro.com Surprise September Jobs Gain unlikely to be revised lower September's 119K nonfarm payrolls gain looks surprisingly solid, lifting the three-month average up from 18K to 62K and helping stabilise the six-month trend at a similar pace. While initial…
super-macro.com Years of misallocated capital now weigh on China’s economy China’s residential housing market shows no sign of stabilising. Home prices have been falling for 4.5 years, with the declines now accelerating again. October saw new-home prices drop 0.45% and…
super-macro.com No “K” in Consumption The “K-shaped recovery” narrative was boosted an earlier Moody’s report claiming those in the top 10% of US income brackets drives nearly halfof all spending. But the latest BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey shows that’s way off - the…
super-macro.com Inflation Bites, BoJ Blinks -Yen Slides While the Bank of Japan keeps rates near zero despite 3% inflation, real rates continue to be deeply negative - largest amongst advance economies. PM Takaishi is opting for subsidies, not tightening, while Rengo…
super-macro.com Inflation Fatigue Turns Political: GOP Hit Hard in Local Elections Republicans took “brutal setbacks” in state & local elections as voters vented fury over soaring living costs, slowing job creation & a record 7-week shutdown. While inflation fears…
super-macro.com US Disinflation has already stalled Powell recently said that inflation excluding tariffs is “not so far” from 2%, noting tariffs may have added 0.5–0.6pp to core PCE, but most analysts see a smaller impact. Meanwhile, Sept CPI shelter likely overstated…
super-macro.com US Inflation’s not dead — it has just reloaded The ISM services index posted a solid rise in October on surging new orders, but there was also a small and concerning uptick in the Prices index, which rose 0.6 points to 70 - its first reading at or above…
super-macro.com Yen Left to Carry the Load as Japan Dodges Normalisation Japan’s policy mix remains out of sync. PM Takaichi urges caution on rate hikes, and BoJ’s Ueda is in no rush to normalise - even as Tokyo CPI ticks up to 2.8% and the labour market remains…
super-macro.com Eurozone inflation not quite as subdued as it looks Eurozone inflation looks calm on the surface - but the details tell another story. Headline eased to 2.1% in Oct, but: • Core stayed firm at 2.4% (↑ vs 2.3% expected) • Services inflation rose to…
super-macro.com One of the key drivers behind gold’s rally in recent months has been a surge in ETF demand. In September alone, gold-backed ETFs added more than 100 metric tonnes – roughly equivalent to the total net purchases by central banks over the first two quarters…
super-macro.com US Labour Market Defies Fears of Collapse Despite the government shutdown, state-level jobless data continue to be published and provide reliable signals. Seasonally adjusted initial claims fell roughly 16K to 215 – 217K, reversing the prior week’s rise…
super-macro.com Regional US PMIs not signalling need for easing The October Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing surveys moved in opposite directions, but their new orders and shipments components both signalled expansion and their employment indices pointed to…
super-macro.com Retail finally piles into gold-aggressively One of the key drivers behind gold’s rally in recent months has been a surge in ETF demand. In September alone, gold-backed ETFs added more than 100 metric tonnes - equivalent to the total net purchases by…
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