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Tomohiro Ohigashi / 大東智洋

١٦ ديسمبرم

Sparse Bayesian Partially Identified Models for Sequence Count Data Won Gu, Francesca Chiaromonte, Justin D. Silverman arxiv.org/abs/2512.12040

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BitQuant

@BitQua

١٥ ديسمبرم

I just want to point out that the majority of Bitcoin models being promoted to you are Bayesian probabilistic models. These models simply increase the probability of going higher when price is already going up, and increase the probability of going lower when price is already…

Sam Rose

@samwhoo

١٤ ديسمبرم

I made a tool to search all possible answers an open model can give you for a prompt and print them out ranked by probability.

Sam Rose

@samwhoo

١٤ ديسمبرم

Made a tool called llmwalk that shows you the most likely answers an open source model will give you. It tree searches the answer space until it finds the N most likely answers. uvx llmwalk -p "Answer succinctly: when did France first win the world cup?" github.com/samwho/llmwalk

vittorio

@IterIntellectus

٤ يونيوم

yes, the predictions are probabilistic. yes, the accuracy varies by trait. but so does everything in medicine. this is not about certainty, this is about more control 5/

Tivadar Danka

@TivadarDanka

٢ يونيوم

If your sidewalk is wet, does that mean it rained? Not always. Someone could have spilled a bucket of water. Now imagine training an AI to make that call. Welcome to probabilistic thinking! It's not just logic. It's Bayesian inference, the math that lets machines (and humans)…

TivadarDanka's tweet image. If your sidewalk is wet, does that mean it rained?

Not always. Someone could have spilled a bucket of water. Now imagine training an AI to make that call.

Welcome to probabilistic thinking!

It's not just logic. It's Bayesian inference, the math that lets machines (and humans)…

Chart is Beautiful

@kudo_akio

٤ مايوم

#InventoryManagement #ProbabilisticModels #Python I wrote an article titled 'Solving Inventory Management with Probabilistic Models'. ailogsite.netlify.app/2025/05/05/202…

Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQF

@predict_addict

٥ أبريلم

The lesson: just because a model is branded for uncertainty doesn’t mean it delivers. Stop the monkey data science—science is not crowd-following. #DataScience #NGBoost #ProbabilisticModels #ModelEvaluation #MachineLearning #StopTheHype ---

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

٢٣ مارسم

Is the following image 55% blue or 55% red? Take a guess. It's virtually impossible for the naked eye to tell. And this is why you *cannot* say a model that says there is a 55% chance of a one-off event occurring is that, functionally, from one that gives a 45% chance.

lxeagle17's tweet image. Is the following image 55% blue or 55% red?

Take a guess. It's virtually impossible for the naked eye to tell. And this is why you *cannot* say a model that says there is a 55% chance of a one-off event occurring is that, functionally, from one that gives a 45% chance.

Swapna Kumar Panda

@swapnakpanda

١٩ فبرايرم

"Probabilistic Machine Learning" - FREE Book (in PDF) - Published by MIT - Authored by Kevin P. Murphy - Available in 2 parts: Introduction & Advanced - Recently Published (2022/23) - Suitable for absolute beginners, experienced