Nick Rowe
@MacRoweNick
Amateur Mechanic. Professional Economist (retired). Better at fixing cars, because I can usually figure out what the designer intended.
قد يعجبك
I've been trying to understand the debate about "Multiple Intelligences". But I keep thinking about Comparative Advantage vs Absolute Advantage.
RCTs protect you against a lot of things. But you still need to watch out for fallacies of composition. "Winning the lottery causes each firm to do x. Therefore, if all firms win the lottery, every firm will do x." Maybe, maybe not.
Help! We're trying to move Worthwhile Canadian Initiative from Typepad (which is shutting down) to WordPress, but we're told that Wordpress has a maximum import size of 15 MB - our import file is 89 MB. Is there any way around this? (Please RT)
The more powerful the Stock Market Vigilantes think they are, the less the stock market will fall. Because they will expect a higher probability of a bigger and quicker policy reversal.
My *hunch* is that AI will raise the returns to Land. If AI increases total output (= total income), that extra income has to go somewhere. If AI is a substitute for human capital, and makes non-human capital cheaper to produce, then increased returns to Land seem plausible.
Suppose the only economic model you could remember is the simple Keynesian Cross model you learned in undergrad in the late 1960's. Then if the US had a trade deficit with Canada, you really would believe that the US is subsidising Canada.
Normies: Tariffs may cause inflation, and inflation lowers our real incomes. Economists: Tariffs lower our real incomes. And tariffs may cause inflation (depending on monetary policy, and on nominal rigidities). (With an NGDP target, economists would talk more like normies.)
If a tax causes a bigger fall in congestion than drivers expected, there should be a (partial) "rebound effect" (lower congestion encourages more drivers). Converging to equilibrium takes time. Rational expectations =/= perfect foresight, with a new policy. Data says?
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